Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship integrated flight test breaks up in flight, known as a "rapid unscheduled/unplanned disassembly (RUD)".
RUD of just the lower or upper stage or both would count.
Examples of things that don't count: Hitting the ground intact and being destroyed on contact with the surface, or a single engine having a fire.
We'll use a common sense definition here. The sources for resolution will be SpaceX, media, prominent space youtubers, etc. In case it isn't clear then I'll run a poll.
This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example.
The close date is not a deadline, the question resolves when the flight occurs.
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SpaceX now says booster also had a RUD. (We already knew the outcome was YES since Starship had a RUD, but just fyi)
Super Heavy successfully lit several engines for its first ever landing burn before the vehicle experienced a RUD (that’s SpaceX-speak for “rapid unscheduled disassembly”). The booster’s flight concluded at approximately 462 meters in altitude and just under seven minutes into the mission.
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-3
@jack They're "calling it" on stream that they've lost the ship, not sure if that was before or after your comment - in either case don't mind waiting.
SpaceX says "We did lose the booster"
Still going to wait a bit just to be sure.
@JakobBrunker Supposedly the FTS was activated upon engine relight, that's what I'm betting based on.
@jack it's unknown how it was lost; there may be video to see if it broke up or just fell into the sea. They were having roll control problems - looked as if they were overcorrecting. But the orientation was still good and I'd expect the FTS to be disabled at that point. Await further evidence.
@JonWharf yep, waiting for confirmation. The question is whether it broke up in flight or on hitting the water
@JonWharf it sounds like booster probably splashed down? But the fts market is still at about 50/50.
@Joshua I don't think so, at least it was suppossed to do splashdown in the ocean and had no plan to recover the booster so everything went perfect so far
@JonWharf
I would think so (and that's the basis of my bets)
breaks up ✅
in flight ✅
not on the schedule ✅
@chrisjbillington Likewise; the main doubt in my mind is it may not be 'splodey enough (fails the "rapid" descriptor). 😁
@JonWharf This should resolve NO, it didn't rapidly disassemble in air and the description specifically says hitting the surface doesn't count