How long after Starship IFT-3 will the FAA grant a launch license for IFT-4
22
11k
resolved Jun 4
Resolved
NO
Within 1 month (April 14th)
Resolved
NO
Within 1 month and 2 weeks (April 28th)
Resolved
NO
Within 1 month and 3 weeks (May 5th)
Resolved
NO
Within 1 month and a week (April 21st)
Resolved
NO
Within 1 week (March 21st)
Resolved
NO
Within 2 months (May 14th)
Resolved
NO
Within 2 months and 1 week (May 21st)
Resolved
NO
Within 2 months and 2 weeks (May 28th)
Resolved
NO
Within 2 months and 3 weeks (June 4th)
Resolved
NO
Within 2 weeks (March 28th)
Resolved
YES
Within 3 months (June 14th)
Resolved
YES
Within 4 months (July 14th)

Each answer resolves NO if there are no reports of a launch license within the time listed following the launch of IFT-3

Eg "Within 1 week" resolves NO if there's no report of a license 7*24 hrs after the T-0 of IFT-3

Also note: if the FAA publishes the launch license within the timeframe of an answer but there's no reports of it until later, that answer will resolve NO

A "launch license for IFT-4" is any license issued by the FAA that authorises a fourth full stack launch of Starship

In the unlikely event that the FAA grants a launch license for a fourth flight before IFT-3 occurs, all answers will resolve YES

Edit: Exact dates have been added to the answers given the Starship IFT-3 launch that occurred at 9:25 a.m. EDT on March 14th

Related market:

/Nat/when-will-the-faa-close-the-mishap

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bought Ṁ20 Within 2 months and ... YES

The license was issued on June 4th:

https://drs.faa.gov/browse/excelExternalWindow/DRSDOCID173891218620231102140506.0001%3FmodalOpened%3Dtrue%3FmodalOpened%3Dtrue?modalOpened=true

I don't know if the "June 4th" option means "before June 4th" or "on or before June 4th"

@chrisjbillington or is it on or before 9:25EDT on 4th? but probably not going to find out time when it was issued.

sold Ṁ26 Within 2 months and ... YES

@ChristopherRandles signature is at 15:41 EDT:

@ChristopherRandles Correct: "Each answer resolves NO if there are no reports of a launch license within the time listed following the launch of IFT-3

Eg "Within 1 week" resolves NO if there's no report of a license 7*24 hrs after the T-0 of IFT-3"

bought Ṁ35 Within 3 months (Jun... YES

@creator "within one week" resolves NO

@traders Added a few more answers in the 1-2 month range, and edited all existing answers to include the actual date given that IFT-3 has occurred

Also, curious about people's thoughts on whether it's best to leave the market in terms of IFT-3 date, or just reword it to the now equivalent "When will the FAA grant a launch license for IFT-4" with only a mention in the description that this market was originally framed in reference to IFT-3 date

@Nat I think I like it the way it is now, because it will be easier to compare to other markets in the future. Like if there's a market for ift-5 after ift-4, it's easier to compare to this market if you leave it as "1 month after".

Having the actual date as well is a nice touch, now that we have that info. Best of both worlds.