SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the sixth IFT.
Resolution criteria:
The catch attempt can be made either for the Booster or Starship itself (or both).
'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site, when it has been announced that a catch is part of the flight programme. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid.
It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory. I am open to discussion on this point, but I think other criteria would be more subjective.
If SpaceX announce they will attempt a catch but the flight test fails before the above criteria are met this will resolve NO.
1,000
3.00Last time we had a flight director instead of a launch director. Perhaps because of decision to attempt catch? This occurred near end of boostback burn.
If the flight director does not send signal to attempt catch then the booster will not do an approach run. Even if that signal is sent, the booster could decide that something isn't right and not do the approach run.
So are both the flight director sending signal and the booster deciding to start approach needed in order to resolve yes?
Presumably subsequent abort of approach run would not change this?
@ChristopherRandles https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-45c15ce48df3
What I said last time is that the original conditions stand and won't be altered, but that the increased information we now have about the process can be used to inform whether those criteria have been met.