Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
84
528
1k
2025
6%
chance

Resolves YES on a Starship flying to space (>100km altitude) and returning to Earth in one piece in 2024.

A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a Starship intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts. A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count. A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.

Starship must not explode for at least ten seconds after landing for it to count as having landed in one piece.


The relevant timezone for "in 2024" is local time at the landing site.

See also:

/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos

/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star

/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-super-heavy-boo

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The repeated use of "in one piece" in the market description makes me think that even a single heat shield tile needing to be replaced after landing would prevent this market from resolving YES.

Is my interpretation correct? Otherwise, how much of the heat shield must survive for this market to resolve YES?

@ForTruth No, "in one piece" is being used in the sense of "intact". So a molten ball of sludge comprising the entire rocket would not count even if it is literally a single piece.

It might not be a perfectly bright line as to what losses and minor damage can reasonably be disregarded as expected maintenance and refurbishment after a successful landing, vs which should disqualify a landing from counting as intact or "in one piece", but I am definitely unconcerned about heat tiles.

I think probably anything not described as a "rapid unscheduled disassembly" I would count as landing in one piece. Perhaps there is some edge case I haven't considered of extensive damage that nonetheless isn't a RUD, but nothing comes to mind immediately.

"A catch by an aircraft"

Whoah.

@jks Not planned for Starship, but just covering all bases! It has been done for other rockets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3C6_pdSedow

bought Ṁ17 of NO

1500 Mana limit order No at 40%. Willing to bet more if anyone wants to take the other side. Negotiable odds too

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Limit order of1200 No at 75%. I’ll take bets up to basically any amount of mana if anyone wants to loan it to me.

predicts YES

@NGK I don't know enough about this to bet against you or fund you.

predicts NO

@Eliza If you look at my incredibly good betting record you would see it’s basically free mana 😂

Anyone want to loan me some mana so I can bet I’m illiquid.

Interest on payment negotiable