79
493
Ṁ26KṀ1K
2025
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES on a Starship flying to space (>100km altitude) and returning to Earth in one piece in 2024.
A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a Starship intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts. A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count. A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.
Starship must not explode for at least ten seconds after landing for it to count as having landed in one piece.
The relevant timezone for "in 2024" is local time at the landing site.
See also:
/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the second quarter of 2024?
96% chance
Will SpaceX launch a nine-engine Starship variant in 2024?
4% chance
Will SpaceX land on the *MOON* by Dec 31st 2027?
20% chance
Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?
78% chance
Will a SpaceX starship achieve orbit in 2024?
86% chance
Will SpaceX put their HLS lander on the Moon in 2024?
5% chance
How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2024?
Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the fourth quarter of 2024?
88% chance
Will a SpaceX Starship be refuelled in orbit by the end of 2024?
11% chance
Will SpaceX Starship reach orbit at least 2 times in 2024?
93% chance