Shai's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.2
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Shai bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
- Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024?NOṀ30
- Will Twitter/X.com pay for anyone's legal bills related to what they said on the platform, before 2024?YESṀ5
- Will Twitter/X.com pay for anyone's legal bills related to what they said on the platform, before 2024?YESṀ5
10%
20%
30%
- Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?NOṀ800
- Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?NOṀ494
- Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg officialy announce they're having a fight by January 2024?NOṀ350
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%