Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of 2023?
resolved Dec 8

Has to be open to general public and easily accessible. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicted NO

How do we access Musk’s new ChatGPT competitor?

predicted YES

@PGeyer Step 1: be in the US. Step 2: sign up for X Premium+. Step 3: there's a button somewhere on X.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I can't wait to see the memes that are not just in the hands of the superfams

📢Resolves YES

📢Creators other similar markets are resolved also

There's talk about "will anyone on Manifold subscribe to access Grok to confirm?". I happen to already have Premium+, so received Grok at the same time Elon tweeted that everyone should have access:

Grok AI (beta) is now rolled out to all 𝕏 Premium+ subscribers in the US.

It's a meme on Twitter to have it roast people, since it's one of the default suggestions, so here's it roasting me:

I don't remember if I have a stake on any of these markets, but it seems like it is available to anyone in the public in the US. You just have to pay, so it's public in the same sense that ChatGPT's GPT-4 is public, or a McDonald's Big Mac is publicly available.

2 traders bought Ṁ2,000 YES

⚠User @johnleoks Has Known To Be Inactive
📝 ̶I̶ ̶n̶e̶e̶d̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶o̶f̶ ̶p̶o̶s̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶M̶a̶n̶i̶f̶o̶l̶d̶ ̶u̶s̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶a̶c̶c̶e̶s̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶k̶n̶o̶w̶ ̶i̶n̶d̶e̶e̶d̶ ̶E̶l̶o̶n̶s̶ ̶T̶w̶e̶e̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶r̶u̶e̶,̶ ̶s̶i̶n̶c̶e̶ ̶I̶ ̶d̶o̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶u̶s̶e̶ ̶�̶�̶ ̶P̶r̶e̶m̶i̶u̶m̶+̶.̶

📢Understand their may be additional questions, but I will wait to hear those after there is any proof or other mods see this in Discord. Thank you.

I do not , have not, will not hold a position in this market

@SirCryptomind to clarify it's Premium+ not the standard premium (there are levels now).


@shankypanky 😂 I added the +
Still waiting for Manifold+ subscriptions 🤣

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind oh god please no

I'm here too much as it is 😭😅

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind Is that necessary, for a Manifold user to have to sign up, do you think? It costs US$16 a month (AU$36 a month over here), and is inferior to GPT-4, so I don't expect to get anything out of it worth my money (not that I have the option yet since the rollout thus far is US-only).

predicted YES

A lot of people chiming in here saying they're Premium+ and after updating and/or closing and reopening the app they have it with a particular icon:


I think this is enough for resolution, no?

@chrisjbillington No, you are right. I just like proof, apologies if that seemed excessive for my personal standard. I probably won't be the one resolving this market if it is needed. I was just the first to be able to get to it and look it over a bit.

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind Fair enough, appreciate it!

predicted YES

FYI traders, nobody has asked the mods to resolve this yet (edit: now they have!), and I wasn't planning on asking them until the Grok rollout to all US users is complete (which I think is probably required for a YES resolution).

So just a warning not to interpret the fact that it hasn't resolved yet as evidence that the X Premium requirement (or anything else) is a problem for resolution - nobody has been asked to decide yet.

@chrisjbillington "Has to be open to general public and easily accessible" clearly doesn't mention anything about it having to be free. I don't think the requirement to subscribe thus makes any difference.

predicted YES

@ZZZZZZ I don't think so either. I'm just making sure people know that the reason the market is still open is not because a mod has decided otherwise :).

I think the rollout to all US users (which was said to take a week) probably needs to be complete before this can resolve though.

Oh! It is complete! I thought it was going to be done over a week, but I guess they decided to go for it. I'll ask for mod resolution.

bought Ṁ2,975 YES

does it count cause it's premium

predicted YES

@ItsMe Nobody knows, and the creator isn't around to clarify. This question will probably be resolved by moderators making a judgement on whether to count it, so if you want to bet, keep that in mind.

@ItsMe I take it it does

@ItsMe Why wouldn't it? Is it supposed to be free?

@Shai Technically there are a few things ofher than paying you need to agree to to get Premium and you can technically get denied. But I don't see how that's substantially different from the signup process and agreement to terms & conditions that you do on just about anything on the internet.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 90%

I'm not resolving this but seems obviously a yes to me.

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