This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.
At the end of 2023 if Twitter has more annual revenue than it did in 2022 this market will resolve YES.
Google suggests $5 billion annual revenue in 2021.
Post of related markets:
https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
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In an update to investors, Twitter reported a decline of about 40% year-over-year in both revenue and adjusted earnings for the month, the people said.
I think Musk has some positive impact on revenue purely from halo effect, while also having a large negative impact on revenue from all the chaos he sowed. Some of that negative impact already took effect this year in 2022, which makes the comparison a bit trickier.
He's reportedly thinking of laying off 75% of employees, which will cut costs but also should slow revenue growth. And a ton of employees are already leaving themselves.
Also there's the broader market conditions, which I think are pushing revenues down in general independent of Musk's involvement.
Overall I think revenue will go down next year, and I think Musk is way overoptimistic about Twitter's financials under his leadership.
Actually, I should say that I think revenue growth will go down next year. But revenue might still go up, just thanks to the general upwards trend that Twitter's been on for many years: https://www.statista.com/statistics/274568/quarterly-revenue-of-twitter/