FINAL ULTIMATE EDIT SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO READ THE BLOCK OF TEXT BELOW:
Destiny has said he will be submitting the paperwork for divorce. If the divorce goes through legally BEFORE 2025, this market will resolve "YES", if it does not, it will resolve "NO".
Keep in mind I don't know exactly how the divorce process works or when it is legally finalized, but since the information is public, I assume people will link legal documents in the comments as they release. Good luck!
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Original Description:
Will resolve if a divorce finalizes legally. Will not resolve if they just break up. IF they announce divorce before 2024, I'll hold off resolving it either happens legally or they get back together, meaning if they announce divorce before 2023 and legalize it in 2024, I'll still resolve for "Yes." melW
Edit 12/7/23: It seems Destiny and Melina have separated in some way, the message above will still hold true in the best way possible, so I will clarify here. If they stay separated for the rest of the year and never mention divorce, I will resolve NO. If they say they are proceeding with a divorce, I will wait until the end of 2024, and if a divorce happens, I will resolve YES- if it does not, I will resolve NO. What I think is most likely is they will be ambiguous around the term "divorce" for the rest of the month, maybe mention it half jokingly a couple times. In this case it would be up to me to decide if it counts as announcing divorce, but I'll let you know now I will be pretty liberal with the "announcement", if it feels like they are going to get a divorce based on what they have said, I will probably wait it out- this part is completely my digression so I will not be betting in the market.
Edit 12/8/23: This clip counts as announcing the divorce https://clips.twitch.tv/PlacidDifferentKimchiMau5-SAyRYV8XYclwZrw0 . This means if the divorce happens legally in 2024, this will resolve YES, if it does not happen legally in 2024 it will resolve NO.
FYI: I have no idea how a divorce works legally or if there are different stages or when it counts as finalized so if you want it to be resolved spam pdfs in the comments as they come out good luck :)
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I tried looking up the public record on florida's website, but you have to pay $4.95 to access it. Fuck that, but if anyone wants to give it a shot, here you go.
https://floridacourtrecords.us/search/register?reportId=FL-B-128813263771&mercSubId=florida&subId=florida&preSearchParameters=Zmlyc3RuYW1lPXN0ZXZlbiZsYXN0bmFtZT1ib25uZWxsJnN0YXRlPUZMJnNlYXJjaFR5cGU9Y291cnQ=
Or maybe that Henry Resilient guy (the black lawyer dude on youtube who covers xqc adept divorce stuff) will pay for it and cover it.
I've sold out of this market, so I'm a bystander now. The announcement of the divorce was unambiguous.
The creator didn't respond to a ping and it's been well over 24 hours, so per the community guidelines I'm now going to mod resolve this to yes. If anyone wants the last liquidity go ahead and take it before I resolve.
@Joshua I have no stake but I do not agree with this. There is no proof of the divorce besides Destiny's word. In my opinion it sets a bad precedent to resolve markets like this based only on his word. He is known to have been an unreliable agent and has even manipulated markets with disinformation just for the lulz in the past.
@dgga Wait, what? He said exactly how much it cost, and then said it was 100% finalized. I don't see how there's ambiguity, but if you want I could un-resolve and then per the guidelines see if three mods agree unanimously. How else would this resolve if not based on Destiny saying it was finalized?
@Joshua From the description of this very market: "since the information is public, I assume people will link legal documents in the comments as they release."
@dgga I took that as the creator not expecting Destiny to talk about it more. But he earlier took statements from Destiny/Melina on stream as the announcement of the divorce, I don't see why his statement on stream wouldn't count as him finalizing the divorce. I'll ask other mods though.
@Joshua Destiny viewers are still traumatized from the time Destiny lied about a planned Jordan Peterson debate
He just mentioned on stream that its finalized, about 1 hour 45 minutes into this stream: https://www.youtube.com/live/16TEC5NdqqQ?si=mtBjjgAWLMh0IGjS
@doderino The question was originally titled "Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024?" but the description clarified that announcing divorce in 2023 and then legally finalizing it in 2024 would resolve the question YES. So nothing really changed, but the title and description was changed to make it more clear now that they've announced the divorce.
This is going to be the new Shapiro interview market, can smell it from miles away.
@SebastianKimari It said the divorce could be announced in 2023 and finalized in 2024 from the start
@SebastianKimari I reported your comment encouraging Tumbles to commit self-harm and invite others to do so.
@SebastianKimari Your link proves me right chucklefuck. You've gotten this mad about it, digging up archives and everything, and not once now or in the past did you manage to read the short old description. Are you possibly being stupid on purpose, as a joke?
@SebastianKimari I hid a couple of your comments. Please don't comment hateful things like that
@SebastianKimari The original title was a bit misleading and could have been better matched to the description. Manifold hasn't had good standards with respect to that, or which of title and description takes priority, but we're actively discussing it and hoping to improve things.
In the mean time, if you see such discrepancies on other markets, please ask the creator to clarify and/or fix them, and ask the mod team for help if needed.
As best I can tell, taken together, the current version and the original version of title + description seem very similar and I don't think there's a problem. They've been modified to match breed, which is exactly the remedy we'd try for, so I don't think anything further is needed.
If you think that's wrong, please say so and be specific about what doesn't match.
And please keep the comments friendlier and more civil.
@SebastianKimari The outlines provided in the original description were followed exactly (you can still read them). I agree the original title was slightly misleading though, when I made the market over a year ago I was less experienced at making sure markets were super clear, and definitely would've altered it if I made it today.
The term "divorced" is a bit vague because it is used in a colloquial sense in a slightly different way than in a formal sense. Formally, divorce is the "legal dissolution of marriage", but many people including Destiny, use the word as "separation of a married couple". Destiny has even already referred to himself as "divorced" (in relation to Melina) even though the legal process isn't technically finalized. So because of this distinction I outlined the difference in the description from the very time the market went up; that outline has been followed exactly, and updated to better inform people.
Overall I don't feel too bad because anyone who read the description at any point could've known exactly how the market would be resolved, and once the market started gaining traction I made the title better fit the description. You also have to keep in mind the potential backlash on making a resolution decision if I never clarified in the description, many people could have interpreted Destiny calling himself "divorced" from Melina, grounds for a resolution, while others may have been thinking legally, this is why I clarified in the description.
@SebastianKimari Consider Marcus’s comment your only warning and chill with the abuse, particularly telling people to kill themselves
[edit: even if you’re generally friendly with each other or it’s taken in good spirit, the site quality improves if everyone is comfortable to disagree and discuss without worrying they might be told to buy a rope]
it’s ok to be mad or lawyer for resolution, but do it more politely. Next time will be a temp mute/ban (no commenting or making markets)
Even if things aren’t perfect, please remember that the market creator is still just another random person chilling on the site trying to have fun - same as the others you were rude to
The market hasn’t broken any rules and the description/title updating were to prevent additional confusion. It hasn’t changed the resolution criteria.
I encourage you to make some of your own markets if you believe you could do better. There’s plenty of dggers hungry for more to bet on!