Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg officialy announce they're having a fight by January 2024?
closes 2024

Elon Musk recently said he was up to a cage fight against Zuckerberg.

EDIT: A comment I gave for @BrendanFinan on the resolution criteria, even though I think it's clear

I am expecting they annoucing something real, like setting a date, or that they picked the location, or that they closed with UFC for the fight. As they are both social media moguls, posting on social media could count, but I'll rely on judgement and in the mainstream press to adjudicate.

Honestly? I don't expect this to be controversial at all, so that's why I deemed it OK to bet on this market.

The fact that Musk is world's best troll will make me more skeptical of believing in him (he already tweeted it's happening), so I perhaps may rely more on MZ and Meta comms

I may bet on this market.

Related markets

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have a physical fight in 2023?
jack avatarJack
4% chance
Conditional in the fight between Musk and Zuckerberg happening, will Zuckerberg win?
MP avatarMP
74% chance
Musk vs Zuckerberg fight: will Zuckerberg win?
Bdog avatarBenji
74% chance
Will Mark Zuckerberg win by Knockout against Elon Musk?
AdamDyer avatarAdam Dyer
12% chance
(Musk v. Zuck) Who will win the fight between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg?
chilli avatarchilli
73% chance
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg schedule a fight by April 1, 2024?
Simon74fe avatarSimon
19% chance
Will either man back out of the Elon Musk v.s. Mark Zuckerberg cage match?
If the Elon Musk vs Mark Zuckerberg fight goes forward, will Zuckerberg win?
LarsDoucet avatarLars Doucet
74% chance
Will the Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg fight happen before 2027?
BenjaminIkuta avatarBenjamin Ikuta
26% chance
If Elon & Zuck fight, will it be at the Colosseum?
SG avatarS G
16% chance
Will the Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg fight happen in 2024?
BenjaminIkuta avatarBenjamin Ikuta
25% chance
Will Elon Musk beat Mark Zuckerberg if they fight in a cage match?
mistersplice avatarmistersplice
23% chance
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg Actually Fight in a Cage Match In 2023?
Blomfilter avatarBlomfilter
10% chance
Will Elon Musk back out of fight against Mark Zuckerberg because his mom told him not to do it?
Mirek avatarQuantum Gambler
22% chance
Will Lex Fridman tag team Zuckerburg with Elon?
Mirek avatarQuantum Gambler
21% chance
Will the Elon Musk vs Mark Zuckerberg fight happen before the end of 2024?
orb avatarorb
20% chance
Will Elon win the fight?
Chllucas avatarChllucas
24% chance
During Elon vs Zuck fight, will either participant bleed?
firstuserhere avatarfirstuserhere
63% chance
Will Elon Musk blame his doctor/Canadian girlfriend/mother for declining to fight Mark Zuckerberg in 2023?
BokiLee avatarBoki
18% chance
Will there be a video of Elon Musk training for his fight with Zuck before the end of 2023?
zf avatarzf
26% chance
Sort by:
MP avatar
MPsold Ṁ224 of NO

Selling not due to lost conviction, but only due to funding requirements

1 reply
jgyou avatar
JGYpredicts YES

@MP hmm hmm sure

MP avatar
MPpredicts NO

Today Musk was saying he was going to drive to Mark's Palo Alto home to challenge him in the ring in his backyard. Meta comms said that MZ wasn't in California and he treats the sport seriously.

There are crazy hopium by the YES holders. Yes, I panic sold a bit of my position in the Italian government declarations, but it seems it was Dana and Musk doing preparations without talking to Mark, that clearly is very upset with the whole situations and (correctly) thinks Musk isn't serious about fighting.

4 replies
MP avatar
MPbought Ṁ207 of NO


@SG why @acc just trend followed my trade now? I thought the bot was here just providing Liquidity, but it seems he liked my trade doubled down a bit

jgyou avatar
JGYpredicts YES

@MP it just reacts to your calibration. If you are underconfident, it will update further in the direction of your bet. Conversely, if you are overconfident, it trades against you.

MP avatar
MPpredicts NO

@jgyou Is it about my overall calibration or some segment of manifold calibration?

jgyou avatar
JGYpredicts YES

@MP segments

MP avatar
MPpredicts NO

I am a bit puzzled. Why is this market moving so aggressively?

7 replies
Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts YES

I've sold my position so the motivated reasoning has mostly left my body, but I do think this is >50% now.

Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts YES

Like he's talking to the prime minister of italy, that's more than shitposting.

MP avatar
MPpredicts NO

@Joshua I don't believe in anything Musk talks, but it seems an italian government official tweeted about

Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts YES

There is still the surgery though:

MP avatar
MPsold Ṁ269 of NO

@Joshua Just spooked by this one

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ10 of NO

Yeah I think real plans are being made. Still waiting on Zuckerberg, of course.

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ40 of NO
braulios avatar
brauliospredicts YES

The market resolves yes if they announce tomorrow that the fight will happen in June 2024, right?

2 replies
jgyou avatar
JGYpredicts YES

@BraulioValdivielsoMartine That's how I've been reading the description.

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ10 of YES

I Want To Believe

3 replies
becauseyoudo avatar
becauseyoudopredicts NO

@Joshua fight promotions are so ridiculous

MP avatar
MPbought Ṁ3 of NO

@Joshua I once bought based on Dana shit talking, didn't fare well. The signal is Mark saying he isn't holding his breath for the fight to happen

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ100 of YES

These are, uh, non-epistemic bets. That's a thing right?

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballbought Ṁ200 of NO


"NEW: Elon Musk says he will receive an MRI of his neck and upper back and may require surgery


Musk Says He May Need Surgery, Will Get MRI on Back and Neck"

2 replies
Joshua avatar
Joshuapredicts YES

Notably, he continued to tweet about the fight after that report came out.

I think it's totally plausible he might use a medical excuse to back out of or delay the fight, but right now he isn't saying that.

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballpredicts NO

@Joshua I have no problem believing he will continue to tweet about it.