Elon Musk recently said he was up to a cage fight against Zuckerberg.
EDIT: A comment I gave for @BrendanFinan on the resolution criteria, even though I think it's clear
I am expecting they annoucing something real, like setting a date, or that they picked the location, or that they closed with UFC for the fight. As they are both social media moguls, posting on social media could count, but I'll rely on judgement and in the mainstream press to adjudicate.
Honestly? I don't expect this to be controversial at all, so that's why I deemed it OK to bet on this market.
The fact that Musk is world's best troll will make me more skeptical of believing in him (he already tweeted it's happening), so I perhaps may rely more on MZ and Meta comms
I may bet on this market.
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Today Musk was saying he was going to drive to Mark's Palo Alto home to challenge him in the ring in his backyard. Meta comms said that MZ wasn't in California and he treats the sport seriously.
There are crazy hopium by the YES holders. Yes, I panic sold a bit of my position in the Italian government declarations, but it seems it was Dana and Musk doing preparations without talking to Mark, that clearly is very upset with the whole situations and (correctly) thinks Musk isn't serious about fighting.
I've sold my position so the motivated reasoning has mostly left my body, but I do think this is >50% now.
Yeah I think real plans are being made. Still waiting on Zuckerberg, of course.
The market resolves yes if they announce tomorrow that the fight will happen in June 2024, right?
And this is why it is trading well above https://manifold.markets/jack/will-elon-musk-and-mark-zuckerberg-bd28b2349d95
https://twitter.com/business/status/1688387257332375552
"NEW: Elon Musk says he will receive an MRI of his neck and upper back and may require surgery
Musk Says He May Need Surgery, Will Get MRI on Back and Neck"
Notably, he continued to tweet about the fight after that report came out.
I think it's totally plausible he might use a medical excuse to back out of or delay the fight, but right now he isn't saying that.
