Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2023?
2k
resolved Mar 30
Resolved
YES

Eliezer Yudowsky is a renowned AI Alignment researcher. Recently on sabatical from the the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) after apparently losing hope in the fight to prevent missaligned AI from being developed.

He recently appeared on the Bankless Podcast indicating that he had given up but was putting himself out there for (apparently) very frank interviews.

Lex Fridman is an MIT Machine Learning researcher and podcaster.

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For those who think Alignment is an issue, here's a market which uses an engineering benchmark to measure one dimension of alignment:

predicted YES

@JamesBills Please resolve.

predicted YES
predicted YES

in Caleb's defence, I think this was a worse episode compared to Lex's other interviews (though I've only listened to 2) and also not as interesting as Eliezer's apperances on other podcasts.
but I think it was in both of their interests to have done this episode even still

predicted YES

@Sinclair Yeah, I feel like there was an inferential distance problem going on. Eliezer seemed to assume Lex would be on board with more assumptions than he actually was

predicted YES

@NathanNguyen Not the first time this has happened - and not an uncommon problem experienced by theorists who have been ensconced in their ivory towers with similar people who do understand/share certain basic assumptions with them.

When will it be releaaaaseeed?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@MaxG now

predicted NO

In lieu of the broadcast going out, I admit defeat.

My reasoning for my bets:

  • initially, as stated in the comments (Lex is not a good podcaster, and I stand by this)

  • secondarily, I noticed Eliezer buying small amounts on this bet for Yes and thought to myself "he's trying to bait for more activity on this bet, otherwise he would bet his entire portfolio - thus, he must actually NOT be going on the podcast"

  • thirdly, I committed far too hard to this belief

  • fourth, I'm still placing a small percentage on this actually still being a ploy, but that's below one percent at this point, but still path it to not sell my shares, so whatever

I am bad at predicting things, shrug.

@CalebDitchfield Thanks for explaining your thoughts!

predicted YES
predicted YES

We already recorded this broadcast, though I agree that it shouldn't resolve until the broadcast goes up.

predicted YES

@EliezerYudkowsky Any plans for other podcasts yet?

predicted YES

This should be resolved? When do you plan to resolve it lol

predicted YES

@RahulShah how can this be resolved now?

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch My bad I misread the comment below

predicted YES
predicted YES

@Lorenzo If Eliezer appears in this episode and engages with Sam or Lex, I will resolve it when I confirm. Feel free to timestamp me for quicker resolution.

This market is based on the assumption that Eliezer yudkowsky =/= Sam Altman...

predicted YES

@JamesBills obviously if Lex just talks about having Eliezer on the podcast, that's not sufficient to resolve the market.

predicted YES

@JamesBills Sorry didn't mean to ask for resolution, was just sharing for info, I 100% agree with you

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be
On Lex Fridman's podcast, we'll see
In 2023, will they meet?
Or will this prediction face defeat?

predicted YES

Caleb must be doing UBI

@LeoSpitz or quantum suicide to win lotteries!

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Hahaha lovely to see Eliezer himself betting here after this market dipped to 20%. Niiceee

bought Ṁ5,000 of NO

@firstuserhere indeed it is

predicted YES

@CalebDitchfield how do you have so much MANA lmao

predicted YES

@LeoSpitz He's a new account and limit bought NO at 20%, I think by mistake :/ sucks if the case.

predicted NO

@JamesBills nah this was on purpose. kind of a long play but I still don't think it was a bad idea

predicted NO

(I'm not an idiot and I do know how this works...I'll clarify my strategy once this resolves either way)

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@CalebDitchfield Can't wait to hear it!

predicted YES

Well, if the strategy was to give free Ṁoney to Eliezer, then this is a complete success.

@CalebDitchfield I can't imagine any strategy that involves buying down to 20 when both Eliezer and Lex have already said that they'll do a podcast 🤔

It was posted in the comments, too. I guess I'll wait for that clarification after the market resolves.

predicted YES

@LeoSpitz possibly a record! @CalebDitchfield I hope you created another account and just had a fresh start!

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