Eliezer Yudowsky is a renowned AI Alignment researcher. Recently on sabatical from the the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) after apparently losing hope in the fight to prevent missaligned AI from being developed.
He recently appeared on the Bankless Podcast indicating that he had given up but was putting himself out there for (apparently) very frank interviews.
Lex Fridman is an MIT Machine Learning researcher and podcaster.
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🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ3,688 | |
2 | Ṁ3,632 | |
3 | Ṁ2,195 | |
4 | Ṁ1,319 | |
5 | Ṁ1,067 |
@Sinclair Yeah, I feel like there was an inferential distance problem going on. Eliezer seemed to assume Lex would be on board with more assumptions than he actually was
@NathanNguyen Not the first time this has happened - and not an uncommon problem experienced by theorists who have been ensconced in their ivory towers with similar people who do understand/share certain basic assumptions with them.
In lieu of the broadcast going out, I admit defeat.
My reasoning for my bets:
initially, as stated in the comments (Lex is not a good podcaster, and I stand by this)
secondarily, I noticed Eliezer buying small amounts on this bet for Yes and thought to myself "he's trying to bait for more activity on this bet, otherwise he would bet his entire portfolio - thus, he must actually NOT be going on the podcast"
thirdly, I committed far too hard to this belief
fourth, I'm still placing a small percentage on this actually still being a ploy, but that's below one percent at this point, but still path it to not sell my shares, so whatever
I am bad at predicting things, shrug.
@Lorenzo If Eliezer appears in this episode and engages with Sam or Lex, I will resolve it when I confirm. Feel free to timestamp me for quicker resolution.
This market is based on the assumption that Eliezer yudkowsky =/= Sam Altman...
@JamesBills obviously if Lex just talks about having Eliezer on the podcast, that's not sufficient to resolve the market.
@JamesBills Sorry didn't mean to ask for resolution, was just sharing for info, I 100% agree with you
@LeoSpitz He's a new account and limit bought NO at 20%, I think by mistake :/ sucks if the case.
@JamesBills nah this was on purpose. kind of a long play but I still don't think it was a bad idea
@CalebDitchfield I can't imagine any strategy that involves buying down to 20 when both Eliezer and Lex have already said that they'll do a podcast 🤔
It was posted in the comments, too. I guess I'll wait for that clarification after the market resolves.
@LeoSpitz possibly a record! @CalebDitchfield I hope you created another account and just had a fresh start!