Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?
resolved Jan 1

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/ Close date updated to 2022-12-30 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ245 of YES

Preference cascade incoming?

predicted YES

@Shai In this market or in Russia?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@CertaintyOfVictory Russia, A lot easier to go out and protest when Putin's rule is shaky

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Clock is ticking and still no signs of serious resistance. Wagner are breaking through the first road blocks and elites are fleeing Moscow. Am I updating too quickly?


bought Ṁ55 of YES

@PeterWildeford since you bought M1000 no, what is your model of how this will play out?

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@ElliotDavies Lots of different possibilities!

predicted YES

@PeterWildeford okay to decompose: what's your probability of fighting in Moscow within 48 hours? What's your probability of capture of Moscow within 1 month?

predicted NO

@PeterWildeford If Prigozhin actually attacks Putin I don't see how he can win

predicted NO

@ElliotDavies 80% and 10%

predicted YES

@PeterWildeford nice, think we have identified a crux. I think there's a significant chance (~50%) that there will be limited resistance in Moscow- so we will find out soon enough

How much of an update would elites fleeing Moscow be for you - assuming true?

predicted NO

@ElliotDavies leaving Moscow is not a loss, but a repeated russian tactic (1812)

bought Ṁ0 of NO

From Metaculus:
> A coup [...] is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, rebel group, military, or a dictator.

So this is a market on whether the above happens or not.

predicted NO

@Shai My understanding is that this is false - the coup has to be successful for this Q to resolve true.

predicted NO

@PeterWildeford If the government is seized and removed, I would say the coup is successful, yes.

If it fails, it doesn't count, I assume.

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr I think, since there's a distinction in the title between coup & regime change, that a failed one would count?

predicted NO

From the link, I believe a failed coup would not count, since that would be described as a "failed coup" rather than a "coup"

This question will resolve as Yes if, any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 6 of the following 10 sources publish a public report or article claiming that either a "coup" or "regime change" has taken place in Russia:

This question will not resolve as Yes if Russian President Vladimir Putin (or any successor of Putin) voluntarily resigns during this period

predicted NO

@MetaculusBot this market should reopen

@jack Adjusted. Must have changed or I set it wrong from the start. Thanks!

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