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Resolves YES: https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel/freedom-world/2024

Related.

If you go over the list of criteria and scoring (https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel/freedom-world/2023#PR), you'd see that Israel already scores low in almost every aspect that could have been affected by the war.

There are maybe a few questions that I could see them losing a single point (e.g. independent judiciary), but it's really hard for me to find enough questions where the situation has materially changed to the point of reducing 8 points (to get them from 77 to less than 70).

If I had to guess an exact number based on my reading of the criteria, I'd say their score would drop to 75.

@gpt4 Great point, I didn’t take that into account.

Clarification: The score for 2022 was indeed 77, and I have updated the market's description accordingly. The reason that I mistakenly put 76 is that I was unaware that the report for 2022 had not come out yet when I made the market; 76 is the score for 2021. This market is intended to resolve only once the Freedom House report covering 2023 is released. I will extend the market until then. Thank you

@Shump for your comments which brought this to my attention.

The report that covers 2023 will only be released on February 29th. The 2023 report covers the year 2022 and was made just after this market opened. Does NOT resolve YES

@Shump But it states "Score for 2022 was 76". But the 2023 score is 77, and the score for 2022 was 76 if that is your logic.

@nikki In that case this market should have resolved a day after it was started, when the 2023 report was released. I think Yoav was here at that time. We need a clarification from him to be sure, though.

The context in the market seems to suggest that this means the 2024 report, as that's where the judicial reform will be covered.

The description incorrectly writes "Score for 2022 was 76", which can easily mislead people into misunderstanding the dating. I made the same mistake earlier, buying extra shares assuming the relevant report was already released. It's a problem.

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@xyz resolves YES

I think this should resolve Yes.

https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel

Israel is now less likely to pass the judicial reform bill, yet this market has stayed level/gone a bit down. What am I missing?

@GarrettBaker netanyahu's blocking unsympathetic media: https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2023/10/18/israel-al-jazeera-committee-to-protect-journalists-threat-censor/