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@DavidPetersen Why the hard no? Are the charges public yet?

https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/fbi-arrests-texas-businessman-linked-impeachment-attorney-general-ken-paxton/

FBI arrests Texas businessman linked to impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton

FBI agents on Thursday arrested a Texas businessman at the center of the scandal that led to the historic impeachment of state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

https://www.forbes.com/profile/nate-paul/

Nate Paul

Nate Paul on the 2016 30 Under 30 - Finance - CEO of real estate investment firm that has built a $1 billion portfolio in 17 states of office buildings,

@BTE Was he arrested for fraud?

@LarsDoucet They haven’t announced charges yet but that’s what he was being investigated for apparently. So we will find out tomorrow likely.

@LarsDoucet Got it. For clarity this market will only resolve YES if we get a credible statement of arrest that has fraud (or something that constitutes fraud) in the charges

@LarsDoucet Also has this guy been arrested for fraud before?

@LarsDoucet I saw that. And not that I can find.

@BTE Cool, thanks. Thanks for pointing this out! We’ll see how it develops. Post here if/when we get charges

@LarsDoucet charged with fraud, bu never arrested before, it appears. However, as I'm a layman, is there a clear distinction between fraud and "making false statements to mortgage lenders"? As in: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/austin/news/2023/06/09/businessman-linked-to-texas-ag-ken-paxton-s-impeachment-charged-with-lying-to-get--172m-in-loans

Nate Paul charged with lying to get $172M in loans

Charged with eight counts of making false statements.

@LarsDoucet This has for sure happened. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/09/nate-paul-federal-charges/

Nate Paul charged with 8 felony counts of making false statements to financial institutions

The Austin real estate investor is a central figure in allegations that led the Texas House to impeach suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton last month. Paxton was not mentioned in the indictment.

@LeonardoKroger No. That is fraudulently obtaining a loan.

@LeonardoKroger The real important question is has he been “arrested AND charged with fraud” BEFORE the market was posted. If he hasn’t been, then we don’t need to split hairs on the accusations

@LarsDoucet Haha, just contempt of court earlier this year. Not fraud.

@LarsDoucet Oh I misread this. Yeah if you commit fraud to get a loan that’s fraud.

So it seems:

• he was arrested after the market posted

• For fraud

• He had not previously been arrested AND charged with fraud before the market posted

Can we confirm all that?

@LarsDoucet he has been under investigation associated with Texas AG Len Paxton who is about to be impeached.

@LarsDoucet imho it's confirmed

@LeonardoKroger Just did some searches and agree. He was arrested in March for contempt of court, and this market was posted in April. He was arrested for lying to the court, but the legal definition of fraud is essentially lying to obtain financial benefit. Contempt != fraud, this is a new 30 under 30 fraud arrest after the market was posted, and resolves YES.

so Shkreli, Bankman-Fried, Javice, and...?

As @TravisBaker pointed out, the name is misleading. They they list over 1000 individuals each year.
https://www.forbes.com/30-under-30/directory/

Also here's my relevant market: