Israel claims that Hamas has a command center under al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Hamas denies this. This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospital or in its immediate vicinity, in addition to the claims Israel has provided as of November 10, 2023. The market will expire on June 30, 2024. If no evidence emerges by that time, or it is shown that there is no such command center, this market will settle as NO.
Update, November 19, 8:46 AM PST: The term "no evidence" in the original question was meant to be relative, not absolute. This market will resolve YES if there is enough evidence to conclude there was a command center, but not otherwise. If I estimate there was at least a 90% chance that Hamas had a command center under al-Shifa this market will resolve as YES based on a totality of the evidence. The evidence will be judged based on a consensus of credible reporting, mainly taken from The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and The Washington Post. If before the end date it becomes 90% likely there was no command center in my judgment, this market will resolve as NO. If we get to the end of the market and it's not 90% certain in either direction, the market will resolve as NO.
As for definitions, a "command center" is a place where Hamas either plans or gives orders for military operations. It does not have to be the main command center of its entire war effort, or necessarily a "headquarters." The command center must have been in use as a command center at some point during the current war or during the events immediately preceding it.
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@Emanuele1000 “The Israel Defense Forces has not clarified whether the school was targeted or if the strike on the hospital merely exposed the tunnel's existence beneath the adjacent school.”
Close enough. Using hospitals to hide your tunnels inside schools is close enough. Hamas does have a track record of using hospitals.
So Israel has very good reason to suspect such a thing.
@nathanwei Of course, as it was "close enough" "command center under al-Shifa Hospital" and "a room wired for computers outside the hospital".
I mean there is very good evidence to believe these things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alleged_military_use_of_al-Shifa_hospital#In_the_2014_Gaza_War
US intelligence corroborated the Israeli claims. It's true that within the hospital they found only a few signs, the people evacuated before.
It was more than that, quoting Wiki (which is generally quite biased against Israel) RE the current Gaza war and which sources from the NYT:
" The perception of the media was mixed; while they concluded that a network of tunnels did exist beneath the hospital and that Hamas had used the hospital to store hostages, they also found that Israel's evidence was insufficient to prove that the tunnels were a command and control center or that access points to the network existed within hospital wards. According to Israel, the reason for this was the existence of booby traps that prevented them from fully exploring the unearthed tunnel.[57][56] "
Hamas definitely used the hospital. No one disputes that. The NYT reported that. The NYT also reported that US intelligence agreed it's a command center.
@moloch If you said that the evidence isn't convincing you, that'd be one thing. But claiming there is "absolutely no evidence" shows you can be safely ignored.
@RichardHanania if you felt like writing a short comment on what evidence lead to this YES resolution, I'm sure people would appreciate it. Especially people like me who haven't been following super closely.
@jim Agreed, I would like such a post as well. That said, if you scroll down to my "consolidated evidence" post, I think that would be the type of evidence that Hanania took into consideration.
@jim He preferred to write a piece on how having big boobs is anti-woke. Really funny that a decision on such a sensitive issue involving a volume of half a million Mana was made by a crazy troll.
@Emanuele98 I take Hanania seriously and so do several people I know. Try reading one of his pieces, even that one, in a more charitable frame of mind.
@ElmerFudd He has gone viral for his bullshit about Palestinians and his rant about an actress'breasts. As well making the effort to read anything else by him, one of the first tweets I see is "I guess one cannot put too high a price on the honor of Muslim women." Moreover, from what he writes I thought he was a teenager, someone going to college, when in fact not only does he have a Wikipedia page, but he was already a right-wing extremist in 2008. What is he, 40 years old?...
@Emanuele98 Tldr “iconoclasm is crazy trolling..” That’s exactly what I meant by absence of charitablity.
@ElmerFudd I remembered you for a like on one of my comments and Hanania because Ken Bone retweeted one of his tweets: "Palestinians really are the George Floyds of the international community. Popular with the left because of, not in spite of, their moral depravity. This is a very deep sickness." How seriously should I take him?
(withdrawn)
Just confirming there hasn’t been any more from any of the 4 publications besides that nyt article that suggests electrical components outside of the hospital complex?
There's an alligator under* my house!
*it's actually across the highway in a pond a 100 yards away
@GazDownright Well if you made a market about that, and the description said if there is an alligator in the immediate vicinity, it would resolve yes.
We have https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/is-hamas-using-alshifa-hospital-as for a reason.
An investigation by The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/21/al-shifa-hospital-gaza-hamas-israel/) found that Israeli evidence attempting to justify its attack on al-Shifa Hospital holds little water.
The Wa Post is behind paywall but this Roling Stone article references all the headlines.
Bottom line is there is no hard evidence. Only circumstantial evidence.
@Marq These are old articles. Evidence came out since that article, including 2 pieces in NYT. The second one referenced unreleased imagery that the NYT saw but has not been released to the public. Anyway, we have https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/is-hamas-using-alshifa-hospital-as around 60%.
@nathanwei The NY Times articles does not conclude that there’s anything like a HQ.
The articles actually conclude that it was NOT possible to get from the hospital basement and into the tunnels outside.
@Marq Then you should buy more No shares. Much more No shares in fact please, because I ewant to buy Yes cheap.