Israel claims that Hamas has a command center under al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Hamas denies this. This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospital or in its immediate vicinity, in addition to the claims Israel has provided as of November 10, 2023. The market will expire on June 30, 2024. If no evidence emerges by that time, or it is shown that there is no such command center, this market will settle as NO.
Update, November 19, 8:46 AM PST: The term "no evidence" in the original question was meant to be relative, not absolute. This market will resolve YES if there is enough evidence to conclude there was a command center, but not otherwise. If I estimate there was at least a 90% chance that Hamas had a command center under al-Shifa this market will resolve as YES based on a totality of the evidence. The evidence will be judged based on a consensus of credible reporting, mainly taken from The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and The Washington Post. If before the end date it becomes 90% likely there was no command center in my judgment, this market will resolve as NO. If we get to the end of the market and it's not 90% certain in either direction, the market will resolve as NO.
As for definitions, a "command center" is a place where Hamas either plans or gives orders for military operations. It does not have to be the main command center of its entire war effort, or necessarily a "headquarters." The command center must have been in use as a command center at some point during the current war or during the events immediately preceding it.
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@moloch If you said that the evidence isn't convincing you, that'd be one thing. But claiming there is "absolutely no evidence" shows you can be safely ignored.
@RichardHanania if you felt like writing a short comment on what evidence lead to this YES resolution, I'm sure people would appreciate it. Especially people like me who haven't been following super closely.
@jim Agreed, I would like such a post as well. That said, if you scroll down to my "consolidated evidence" post, I think that would be the type of evidence that Hanania took into consideration.
@jim He preferred to write a piece on how having big boobs is anti-woke. Really funny that a decision on such a sensitive issue involving a volume of half a million Mana was made by a crazy troll.
@Emanuele98 I take Hanania seriously and so do several people I know. Try reading one of his pieces, even that one, in a more charitable frame of mind.
@ElmerFudd He has gone viral for his bullshit about Palestinians and his rant about an actress'breasts. As well making the effort to read anything else by him, one of the first tweets I see is "I guess one cannot put too high a price on the honor of Muslim women." Moreover, from what he writes I thought he was a teenager, someone going to college, when in fact not only does he have a Wikipedia page, but he was already a right-wing extremist in 2008. What is he, 40 years old?...
@Emanuele98 Tldr “iconoclasm is crazy trolling..” That’s exactly what I meant by absence of charitablity.
@ElmerFudd I remembered you for a like on one of my comments and Hanania because Ken Bone retweeted one of his tweets: "Palestinians really are the George Floyds of the international community. Popular with the left because of, not in spite of, their moral depravity. This is a very deep sickness." How seriously should I take him?
(withdrawn)
Just confirming there hasn’t been any more from any of the 4 publications besides that nyt article that suggests electrical components outside of the hospital complex?
There's an alligator under* my house!
*it's actually across the highway in a pond a 100 yards away
@GazDownright Well if you made a market about that, and the description said if there is an alligator in the immediate vicinity, it would resolve yes.
We have https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/is-hamas-using-alshifa-hospital-as for a reason.
An investigation by The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/21/al-shifa-hospital-gaza-hamas-israel/) found that Israeli evidence attempting to justify its attack on al-Shifa Hospital holds little water.
The Wa Post is behind paywall but this Roling Stone article references all the headlines.
Bottom line is there is no hard evidence. Only circumstantial evidence.
@Marq These are old articles. Evidence came out since that article, including 2 pieces in NYT. The second one referenced unreleased imagery that the NYT saw but has not been released to the public. Anyway, we have https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/is-hamas-using-alshifa-hospital-as around 60%.
@nathanwei The NY Times articles does not conclude that there’s anything like a HQ.
The articles actually conclude that it was NOT possible to get from the hospital basement and into the tunnels outside.
@Marq Then you should buy more No shares. Much more No shares in fact please, because I ewant to buy Yes cheap.
People who complain about Hanania should shut up and just participate in this market instead: https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/is-hamas-using-alshifa-hospital-as
Not even those who bet thousands of mana for Yes were betting on a bunker wired to hold computers 100 meters from the hospital complex. I should have gotten out of the market when it came out that the market creator thinks "The Germans under Hitler, really any population in history, were innocence personified compared to the Palestinians".
@Emanuele98 Everyone who participated int he market knew exactly who the market creator was and what he thinks,
@nathanwei Personally, I bet 500 mana without knowing who the creator was, another 500 mana thinking he is a pro-Israel but would still objectively solve the market, and another 100 when I discovered he is against the Palestinians, for the same reason (these yes, I burned them senseless).
Yes, I was stupid to think I could exploit the bias against the creator to buy No share underpriced.
@nathanwei I have no idea who he is nor do I intend to find out. I expect markets to be resolved objectively and not according to personal beliefs; if the latter, I expect the mods to sort it out.
@GazDownright The market description makes it very clear that this would resolve according to the creator's subjective judgement: "If I estimate there was at least a 90% chance that Hamas had a command center under al-Shifa this market will resolve as YES"
@Emanuele98 A very wise observation based on the reality of the situation. The Palestinians are the worst population of humans in modern history.
@AlexanderSharpe We should check if Palestinians have engaged in two mass killing of civilians using nuclear weapons before giving them the number one place.
@JMC These kind of markets should come with a highly visual disclaimer badge that lets us know that the market is more about what's happening inside someone's psyche, than in the real world.
This is not what I expected to find on this site, and would go as far as to say it devalues the entire platform. Nobody has the time to keep tabs on the personal backgrounds of every market creator.
I appreciate that you're not responsible for this quirk, so I hope you don't feel targeted.