Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

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Come back @LexFridman - time for a 2024 market? 🧡

Tucker Carlson

sold Ṁ1,230 of NO

Selling my shares because I need cash

predicted NO

Related news (slightly), from Twitter:

The US government has banned Tucker Carlson from interviewing Vladimir Putin.

“You know, I tried to interview Putin, and the American government stopped me. What, we can’t hear Putin’s voice?! Why? Nobody voted on this issue,” Carlson said in an interview with the Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche.

He emphasized that the American authorities have been controlling all media for several decades, and citizens do not know the true state of affairs

predicted NO

@uair01 Do you consider Tucker Carlson a good source of information?

predicted NO

@LukeHanks No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.

@uair01 That seems like it would be a pretty straightforward first amendment violation, no? As such I'm pretty skeptical that that actually happened. (The BIden administration denies it.)

predicted YES
predicted NO

reminds me of his initial posts on Elon’s Twitter.

predicted YES

As a member of Vladimir Putin's and Lex Fridman's inner circles, this is happening by November 24.

predicted NO

@8 Why are you a member of Putin’s inner circle, if you don’t mind me asking?

predicted NO

@8 stay away from windows browski 💀

predicted YES

@nottelling2ccc not telling 😂

sold Ṁ20 of NO

@nottelling2ccc "Why" is easy! "How"'s way more interesting.

predicted NO

@nottelling2ccc he's just responding to Mira's comment below (about not being in either of the inner circles)

bought Ṁ0 of NO

This market is way overpriced. It seems that Putin hasn't given a single interview with Western media this year (or does anyone have a counterexample?), and Lex Fridman isn't especially likely to succeed at this compared to other journalists; it's not like he has an existing relationship to Putin or otherwise a strong connection

bought Ṁ27 of NO

@JonasVollmer IIRC Lex said at some point that he has some connections, and believes that he could pull this off. On the other hand, Lex says a lot of things, so I'm still betting NO

predicted NO

@Roma yeah. He does speak Russian apparently. But overall still really unlikely


@Mira, you made lots of YES orders—any reason why you think this may happen?

predicted YES

@JonasVollmer I am not a member of Vladimir Putin's inner circle, or of Lex Fridman's. So I have no special information regarding their schedules. Your guess is as good as mine on whether this interview will happen.

predicted YES

With all the recent Russian plane crash drama, there's some risk something weird will happen that will cause this market to resolve NA. I've left M3k in long-odds YES limit orders here:

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Mira tell us an artificial situation how it can resolve na. Putin dies = NO