This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.
At the end of 2023 if Twitter has more daily active users than it did in 2022 this market will resolve YES.
Google suggests about 237.8 million daily active users.
Post of related markets:
https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
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Are there any sources pointing to higher user counts, or is it just hopium holding this so high? All I can find show a substantial decline.
Twitter (now rebranded as ‘X’), has shown a decrease in number of active users since 2022. When observed the number of users, the numbers have increased since 2019 till 2022 (in December 2022, the number was 368.4 million). In 2023, the number is 353.9 million (September 2023), which is a 15% drop worldwide. Statistically, experts are forecasting that the numbers will further decrease in 2024. Currently, only 237.8 million users are monetized. The possible reason for decrease can be because Instagram came up with Threads app in July 2023, which is a ‘potential Twitter killer’. It managed to gain a lot of user base in very short time. Cloudflare’s data says that Twitter has dropped to 37th position (from 32nd) in domain ranking this year. Advertising has shrunk this year on Twitter (/X) from September 2022 to August 2023 by 54% according to ad analytics firm Guideline. So, we can predict that Twitter will not have a high number of daily active users by end of 2023.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/
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It is expected that monthly Twitter users worldwide to drop nearly 4% in 2023 and probably another 5% in 2024. This forecast is based in the technical issues and offensive content that is driving users away.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/
there is the possibility of having more daily active users by the end of 2023. twitter aims to double its active daily user by end of 2023 and statistics proves a consistent growth of daily active users.https://www.bing.com/search?FORM=AEDC01&PC=ATAE&PTAG=ATAE12644&Q=Will+Twitter+have+more+Daily+Active+Users+at+the+end+of+2023%3F#:~:text=X%22%20Rebranding)%20%2D%20Demand%20%E2%80%A6-,https%3A//www.demandsage.com/twitter%2Dstatistics,-As%20of%202023
Market didn't update after this tweet, nobody trusts Musk? 2022 MAU were 350m-410m.
@Shai The fact that Musk didn’t include an x-axis on this graph (so we can’t see exactly when these values are occurring) is suspicious, and the fact that Musk didn’t say when in 2023 in the Tweet itself makes it more suspicious. Even if this is a true graph, I’m thinking that there’s vital context missing.
MAU counts were highly likely to be fraudulent/miscounted so hard to bet on this specific market imo
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katienotopoulos/twitter-users-down-democrats-elon-musk
The number of people using Twitter in the US has decreased almost 9% since Elon Musk took over, according to a recent study. In October 2022, just before Musk took ownership, the study found, 32.4% of Americans were using Twitter. In December and January, that figure had dropped to 29.5%.
...
The drop in users was mostly from Democrats, who quit Twitter at higher rates than independents or Republicans. Thirty-eight percent of those identifying as Democrats used Twitter in October, but that had dropped to 32.9% by January. The change in Republicans and independent users was statistically insignificant, the study found.
Are these the same? https://manifold.markets/Ines/will-twitter-have-fewer-active-user
Twitter DAU has been growing consistently every quarter for a long time: https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/
I think Musk actually will worsen growth - he's talking about cutting 75% of employees to reduce costs, which will also slow growth. But I don't think it will be enough to make the growth negative.
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