Resolves yes if the hostages are released as agreed upon and Israel holds up their end of the bargain.
Resolves no if the ceasefire ends early.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,327 | |
| 2 | Ṁ945 | |
| 3 | Ṁ396 | |
| 4 | Ṁ281 | |
| 5 | Ṁ206 |
@Rucker Do you want me to undelete your account? (If you do I will need ur email as it would have been deleted, send it to info@manifold.markets)
@Rucker Thanks. FYI I did a poll in discord and out of 5 people who responded, all 5 supported YES resolution.
Although multiple people did think that ceasefire violation = ceasefire end, they were a minority and I would classify this as an unfortunate misunderstanding of the terms, especially when they made a bet as a quick reaction to seeing the news of a ceasefire violation.
@jack This is a fair resolution, considering that it was the creator who decided to reverse their previous decision. The poll is largely irrelevant when only the creator has actual say. I would have supported N/A had the creator not returned, because any other resolution would be giving undue power to the majority in any given market where the outcome was ambiguous.
@MarkHamill I'm just telling the author that people support them.
If it had been the reverse, then I would be telling the author that people disagree with them, which is also informative.
The community consensus is a strong piece of input for an author to consider. If everyone read your question different than you did, maybe they are right and you are wrong, and authors would be wise to at least consider that.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-11-28-2023-a909a0a0c9c76ce80d1ff3e94bbe2ec4
A fragile truce between Israel and Hamas entered its fifth day on Tuesday
@Gen Thanks for closing it, I was thinking the same. The author deleted their account, presumably due to the drama here. (As I suggested, it would be great if it were clearer that authors have access to help and resources to help avoid difficult resolution issues from getting worse.)
There is a discussion thread below: https://manifold.markets/Rucker/will-the-israel-and-hamas-ceasefire#tdHx7ZAd5YvA0HnhGCi1
@Gen oh no, you didn't bait me. I live in Israel and have access to the news as soon as they show up ;)
Just didn't count the days correctly. Kind of embarrassing since I should probably know what day it is...
Over the last hour, three explosive devices were detonated adjacent to IDF troops in two different locations in the northern Gaza Strip, violating the framework of the operational pause. In one of the locations, terrorists also opened fire at the troops, who responded with fire.
A number of soldiers were lightly injured during the incidents. In both incidents, the troops were located in positions as per the framework of the operational pause.
The claims have not been independently verified.
Earlier, an AFP journalist reported that they saw an Israeli tank fire three times in the Sheikh Radwan neighbourhood of Gaza City as Palestinians attempted to make use of the lull to return to their homes. Reuters reports that a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said of that incident: “After suspects approached IDF troops, an IDF tank fired a warning shot.”
Lebanese state media has also reported that an Israeli shell landed on the Lebanon side of the UN-drawn blue line that separates Israel and Lebanon."
@Gen I'm assuming you missed the discussion below about these ceasefire violations. It is not at all clear that a ceasefire violation would result in a NO resolution.
@Gen I'm sorry to have to tell you this, but the four days are already about 9 hours past ...
@jack I was going based off of this, from these comments
I think we are going to go with it resolves if one of them states that the ceasefire has been broken. I feel like the missle 15 min after was a really unfortunate happening. Also to my knowledge, a round of hostages were released.
as for the 9 hours past.. That seems like a vital error in setting the close date lol
Please resolve
If they agreed to extend the ceasefire they must agree that it is still in place. This should resolve yes when the 4 day timer runs out unless some other declaration happens
Does the ceasefire include a promise from Israel to not murder civilians for the duration? Or are the only terms the hostage exchanges?
(Duplicate post by accident)
@DanPowell Apparently Israel or Hamas could blow up a preschool and Yes holders in this market would find some way to justify it as not breaking the ceasefire. This market stopped following the rules of the Manifold TOS the moment the creator was overruled and it was reopened, so I'd suggest selling and finding a market where people can't harass the creator into their desired outcome.
@MarkHamill Usual interpretation depends on whether the sides involved consider ceasefire void or not. So far both still consider ceasefire in effect. Hamas is releasing hostages and Israel paused the military actions and allowed humanitary aid to northern gaza.
@ICRainbow yea, that's why it is best to leave it up the the involved parties to determine if ceasefire is over or not. For example Israel said if Hamas did not release hostages last night the ceasefire is over.
@Weezing The creator thought differently, resolved no, and then deleted their account. Then people complained, and the market was reopened despite the Manifold TOS giving a great degree of power to the creator on how to resolve. Literally, as long as they didn’t fraudulently make mana off the resolution, the creator can resolve however they want and the recourse is giving them a 1 star. That is what the TOS says. It’s a mystery to me why the mods didn’t follow their own rules with this market.
@MarkHamill I think if they didnt immediately delete their account after resolving and they stood behind their decision, it would stay that way.