When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire? [Ṁ3K SUBSIDY]
Basic
153
54k
2025
5%
August 1st or earlier
28%
September 1st or earlier
36%
October 1st or earlier
38%
November 1st or earlier
42%
December 1st or earlier
46%
January 1st or earlier
53%
No ceasefire in 2024
Resolved
NO
May 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
June 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
July 1st or earlier

Each answer will resolve YES if there is a ceasefire announced between Israel and Hamas before the listed date, and fighting actually stops for atleast one day. The ceasefire, truce, or pause, must be reported by reputable sources and confirmed by Israel and Hamas. The actual stop in fighting can be confirmed by official sources and/or open source intelligence. Each answer will also resolve YES if the war ends before the listed date, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end. As soon as each date passes (Israel time) without a ceasefire, that answer resolves NO.

Remember: Multiple options can resolve YES. So if there is a ceasefire announced on July 16th, "August 1st or earlier" AND all later answers resolve YES.

If by January 1st, 2025 there is no ceasefire, "No ceasefire in 2024" will resolve YES, and all other markets will have already resolved NO.

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it's called a temporary ceasefire

right (But I doubt Biden would need this ceasefire anymore...

Please stop making every problem in the world about your election.

it's just reality

bought Ṁ8 December 1st or earlier YES

One of the big sticking points is that Israel wants to reserve the right to keep fighting if Hamas goes back on its word in some way, like doesn't release all the hostages they say they will. Hamas wants Israel to be committed to not fighting even if the ceasefire doesn't go completely in line with the agreement conditions.

January 1st or earlier

@mint If there's a ceasefire on Jan 1st, will both this and "Not in 2024" resolve YES?

Good catch. Yes, they would both resolve YES.

bought Ṁ75 October 1st or earlier YES

gettin close 🙏🏼

Resolve July pls

If Hamas in Gaza is effectively eliminated, but Hezbollah joins the conflict and continues fighting, how does this resolve?

Since this question just mentions "Hamas", the reference to the "war" in the description is only the Israel Hamas war. If fighting stops with Hamas but is still ongoing with Hezbollah, it would be enough to resolve this market YES.

Each answer will also resolve YES if the war ends before the listed date, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end.

bought Ṁ1,722 May 1st or earlier NO

May 1st resolves NO @mint

@chrisjbillington thanks, sorry for missing this