I think it's safe to say the retaliatory strike has ended and further actions will not be considered a part of the retaliation. I will do my best now to resolve everything appropriately.

I want to resolve the "performative" question to "yes". However, I'm willing to accept arguments that more significant damage has been achieved compared to Iran's attack.

@Reddit I'm not sure if more damage was achieved, the combined cost of all the interceptors used against the Iranian missiles and drones probably exceeds the cost of the destroyed S300

@colorednoise I'm under the impression there were unconfirmed hits in on IRGC militia positions in Syria, which would be of military significance as well.

@Reddit We might find the balance sheet leaning in favor of Israel/Iran if you summarize all the nuts and bolts, but to me this altercation just looks like mutual postering, and neither gained any significant advantage to the other.

Resolved the "Rocket Sites" question "Yes" as well since an S-300 station was destroyed.

The target was the air defense of a nuclear site, so I think that definitely counts as targeting a nuclear site

@colorednoise I wanted to resolve this a few days ago but wasn't sure if there were reliable sources to pull from at the time, has anyone outside of OSINT accounts confirmed this?

@Reddit article in Israeli media https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/yokra13894229
they say "according to reports" though

@colorednoise I'll go ahead and resolve "Yes" since there are no conflicting reports anyhow..

Rephrased: Iran will not publically acknowledge the explosions that occured in Syria and Iran as an Israeli retaliation for the next 24 hours

https://youtube.com/watch?v=LfbuoL4S520

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781126103123607663

https://twitter.com/aliifil1/status/1781126451468591229

Nothing confirmed yet but I think happeningbros should potentially begin to rejoice.

Hope someone can advise me if I should close this while we wait for news that could confirm the resolutions!

This market (especially "An operation in Rafiah will commence as part of the retaliation") is subjective, you shouldn't be betting on it

I don't see a situation were an operation in rafah can possbily be considered a retaliation to Iran, and you buying Yes makes me doubt the reliability of the market

@colorednoise Didn't know how to phrase it right, but I would only count it as “part of” if it was part of an official operation or if it was referred to being ”part of” the retaliation by a politician or by military command. That should be less subjective.

@colorednoise I'll explain my thinking. Hamas is backed by Iran, Galant spoke today about retaliatory strikes and invading Rafiah, which previously Israel was desisting from (unclear if this is due to foreign pressure, the talks wrt hostage-prisoner exchange, humanitarian reasons, or other factors), I think it's conceivable a Rafiah operation could be referred to as retaliatory. I understand your concerns, and appreciate you for letting me know about them. I have no interest in rigging things in my favor, and don't mind losing mana, but I don't want to have bad etiquette, so I will sell off my shares.

For the next X hours questions, is there a way to tell when they started?

@DanielCotter I'll be going off of noon, GMT +3