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Is this enough to resolve yes?

edit: nevermind, I see the figure down below

@Qoiuoiuoiu Nope you want the Gaza-specific number, scroll down a bit. The number in the banner includes the West Bank as well.

@chrisjbillington ah, thanks!

lol al jazeera totally credible source

@AlexCao I know it’s not there just aren’t any good sources that I know so I’m going with this one

@JamesF you can also wait until a more credible source emerges after the war

@AlexCao Not really, since that would invalidate all the bets made so far. If you'd like to bet over other sources, it should ideally be a separate market.

@chrisjbillington of course. I'm not saying that OP should do that I'm just pointing out an alternative that they could have done.

@AlexCao You should bet on the postwar death toll markets! If AJ is actually grossly inflating the death toll at the moment, you stand to make a ton of mana.

Wow, infuriating making a big buy only to have the limit orders it was intended to be against evaporate due to the UI not updating that they were already cancelled.

@Panfilo Why do you think this is a yes?

@Joshua The rate the last few days has been over 50 per day. There are 6 updates remaining, and 261 deaths to go. I think Chris realized this in time to cancel his second big round of limits. However, I did NOT think it was 79% likely, hence the complaint about the UI.

@Panfilo wait that's the wrong number. This is about the death toll in Gaza only, right?

@Joshua I think linking to this screen-filling image is pretty unambiguous as to what the resolution is based on

@Panfilo What I noticed was this news, which I assumed your aggressive bets were based on. But I noticed you hadn't been betting up Rafah invasion by EOM and have been thinking about it since.

@Panfilo on the contrary I think it's unambiguously the death toll in Gaza, as per the title of the market.

@chrisjbillington I can't imagine @JamesF would have the absolute tee-hee-hee intention of having the whole description be "this is resolve source" and then linking to a page with a splash like that and then using a number you have to scroll down and look for.

@Panfilo I assume it wasn't intentional? But like Gaza and the west bank are different places

@Joshua I am aware of that geographic detail, thank you. But I could point to so many markets about things like surveys or climate data that follow the logic I am using.

@Panfilo I don't think it would have been intentional, just like it didn't occur to me at all that that the number in the banner could have been the relevant number for the market - if someone is linking a webpage as a resolution source they may not notice others might think a different number on the page is relevant, when they're already looking at one number.

People aren't good at modelling each others' minds, if you already have an impression of a webpage you generally aren't good at guessing what someone else's first impression will be - you can't forget what you already know in order to properly simulate not knowing it.

For another example, after your comment above showed you were betting based on the banner number, I thought you would be like "omg I've made a huge mistake" upon it being pointed out to you, rather than actually thinking that's what the creator meant. So I didn't model you well here either.

@Panfilo

I am aware of that geographic detail, thank you. But I could point to so many markets about things like surveys or climate data that follow the logic I am using.

Not that it should affect anything about this market, but example(s)?

@Panfilo I definitely meant the death count for specifically Gaza, I sort of thought that the title was self explanatory. I definitely didn't mean for there to be any confusion.

@JamesF Roger that. Exit order placed. No point disputing it now.

@chrisjbillington Here's one example I was thinking of, where there was intent/literalism/web layout disagreement in the comments, and it only went the way it did due to the creator missing a ping. https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/will-california-wildfire-acreage-be?r=UGFuZmlsbw and the "other market" referred to (which people did not expect to resolve the same way if not for Crypto mod resolving both): https://manifold.markets/thesash/will-more-acres-burn-during-the-202?r=UGFuZmlsbw A clusterfuck in more than one way.

Obviously now that James responded I'm just... reflecting on how exceptional March was in that it didn't have a major moment like this.

@JamesF I nearly blasted a lot of mana into this!