YES = Putin
NO = Wagner
This is a market on whether Wagner’s coup (Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin) against Russia will be successful.
This market will resolve to “Putin” if at any time Yevgeny Prigozhin is taken into custody (i.e. arrested, captured, etc.) or otherwise discontinues the coup. It will resolve to “Wagner” if at any time Putin is no longer the Russian President. The resolution date for this market will be July 15, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, at which point if Putin is still President and has more power over Russia, this market will resolve to “Putin”. If one of the aforementioned conditions is met prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve instantly.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The CIA World Factbook page for Russia, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#government, will also be used.
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This market should match https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p. It seems unlikely to me because the conflict is still in its infancy and Wagner Group is much smaller than the entire Russian military (Wagner is estimated at ~50K, Russia's army at ~1M)
@duck_master Apologies for the confusion. This was taken directly from: https://polymarket.com/event/russian-coup-putin-vs-wagner