Will Wagner group attack Ukraine from Belarus?
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70
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2025
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Czech politian Martin Dvořák claims that the coup of Prigozhin was staged in order to have plausible reason to move the Wagner group to Belarus, as further threatening Ukraine.

CNN Prima News: "I called it 'commedia finita' - it was a very well-prepared scenario of how they got to Moscow without firing a shot, right down to the alleged phone call," Dvořák said. According to him, we can only speculate as to what direction the game should take. "But I feel a chill that the whole result of the operation will be that 25,000 mercenaries will be moved to Belarus and thus closer to Kiev. Whatever we may think, Prigozhin's behaviour is inexplicable," Dvořák said.

The question resolves YES if the Wagner group is part of an attack on Ukraine from Belarus before 1.1.2025, regardless of what happens to Prigozhin.

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Dvořák's description of what has already happened is inaccurate, so I'm skeptical of his predictions for the future.

Wagner did not get to Moscow. They got about 2/3 of the way from Rostov to Moscow, but were still hundreds of kilometers away when they turned back. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-his-mercenaries-headed-moscow-take-army-leadership-2023-06-24/

This was not done without firing a shot. Wagner downed 6 Russian helicopters and 1 Russian airplane. https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-prigozhin-took-down-7-russia-helicopters-plane-rebellion-ukraine-2023-6

Prigozhin is moving to Belarus, but the Wagner forces are returning to their training camps in southern Russia or Ukraine. It looks like (but hasn't been confirmed) that Wagner mercenaries are going to be put under command of the Russian Defense Ministry. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-wagner-prigozhin-9acbdf1eda849692ca0423a4116058d1

OK, apparently the idea was also formulated by Richard Dannatt. I did not look for who is the original author of the idea or whether they are independent.

@Irigi the idea it was staged was also told to me by half of the Russians I know. They didn't specify about Belarus, but are sure it was all a Kremlin plan from the start. As soon as I get mana I will buy. I am not sure about staging having place, but I am 90% sure Vagner will attack from Belarus.

@KongoLandwalker Resolution condition is only about the attack of the Wagner group from Belarus. The first sentence is to provide context, mostly.

@Irigi If the resolution is independent of whether the coup was staged, I highly suggest removing that part of the title - "Will Wagner group attack Ukraine from Belarus before 2025?" would match the resolution criteria much better. (Seeing the market in the list, I thought "staged AND attack from Ukraine shouldn't be that high", but if it is just the attack, then it isn't absurdly high and I won't bet. So unless your goal is to specifically get bets on NO from people that bet by just the title, I think we'd all be better served by a more accurate title).

@MartinModrak Good point, done.