Will Russia launch a major offensive on Kharkiv before September?
Oct 15

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Russia has launched a major offensive on Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine before September 1st 2024.

In the context of this question, a "major offensive" is defined as at least two of the following conditions being met during this period:

  • direct involvement of at least 50k Russian soldiers in combat operations

  • direct involvement of at least 250 Russian tanks in combat operations

  • losses (casualties) of at least 20k Russian soldiers during this period

  • losses of at least 100 Russian tanks during this period

  • launching of at least 200 Russian cruise missiles (Kh-101/3M-14 Kalibr/9M727/9M728...)

  • launching of at least 400 Russian drones (Shahed-136 + other variants...)

  • launching of at least 2000 Russian glide bombs (FAB-500/FAB-1500)

For the above conditions to be met, these events/losses/evidence must occur within Kharkiv Oblast.

(Note that other conditions may be added to this list as appropriate)

If there is weak evidence that this has occurred, but no strong evidence, then this question resolves as N/A. Similarly, if there is significant ambiguity about whether the above conditions have been met, this question resolves as N/A.

If there is no evidence that this major offensive has occurred (defined as enough of the above conditions being met) then this question resolves as NO.

More information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Kharkiv_Oblast

Image credits (Ekaterina Polischuk)

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BBC is suggesting Russia used 200 glide bombs in the past week in Kharkiv: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko

Since Russia is allegedly using 3000 glide bombs a month, I'm going to create a separate condition for these to distinguish them from the drones. Otherwise this doesn't make much sense.

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