Update 2026-07-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A rebellion that controls territory inside Russia counts. A coup that simply changes the government does not count.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 31% chance (31 traders, as of Jul 27, 2026).

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

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Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

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2030

31%

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Update 2026-07-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A rebellion that controls territory inside Russia counts.
- A coup that simply changes the government does not count.

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If their is a civil war, insurection, or susseccesion, so putins government does not control part of Russias territory I take it that counts. Or does it have to be controlled by people who are not technically Russian?

@MarkNicoll a rebellion that controls some territory counts. A coup that simply changes the government does not.

If something happens so that the Russian government totally surrenders and has a temporary government installed by the US or another nation before holding elections a short while later, but does not actually lose control of any territory, does that resolve yes or no?

This question is obviously going to need some clarification about how much territory Wagner controlled on June 24 2023

@JoshuaWilkes Is it so controversial that you can't just go with what Wikipedia says?

@BenjaminIkuta Sure you can go with that, but you have to tell us! :D

@JoshuaWilkes I think Wagner can be argued to have controlled Rostov, and possibly (though less likely) Voronezh. That's not really much in terms of area.