Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia at the end of 2024?
278
2.7K
2.6K
Dec 31
94%
chance

Currently (28.II.23), presidential elections in Russia are scheduled to be held on 17th of March, 2024.

This market will be resolved to:

YES -- if on 31st of December, 2024, 23:59 UTC Vladimir V. Putin is considered (by other russian officials) to be the President (more generally -- head of state) of Russian Federation.

NO -- the conditions in YES are met for a person other than Vladimir V. Putin.

N/A -- any other outcome

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'll put the chances of him being in power at the 80-90% range so bet against it for now.

predicts YES

@QlumWyrfex Feel free to take my limit orders. It's currently hard to imagine what would make him lose power over the year.

predicts NO

This seems unusually high given he has cancer and every wealthy democracy in the world wants him dead (not to mention rumblings of severe discontentment from his inner circle, who increasingly need him less than he needs them). He’s also losing his own expensive, deadly, demoralizing war.

Lot of confidence from this market in an infirm public enemy number one, hemorrhaging resources and time, who can’t even trust his own chosen advisors.

bought Ṁ500 YES from 93% to 94%

@Slothrop 🤣?

predicts NO

@AltPutin Yeah I think his murderous rampage across Europe for no reason is funny too - ha ha

@Slothrop Кем ты себя возомнил? 🔌

bought Ṁ10 of YES
bought Ṁ50 of YES

Based on the results of the elections to the State Duma in 2021, it became clear that the innovation called Remote Electronic Voting covers up all real votes on printed ballots. With the help of this tool, it has become much easier to falsify elections, which has been used more than once in elections at various levels. Therefore, the result of the 2024 Russian presidential elections is very predictable - Putin will remain in power.

He cares about his health above all else, and does not allow anyone closer than a few meters, not even his officials. His life does not appear to be in danger. So, I bet yes

predicts YES

@26a0 Correct. There is a chance he could die but it's not 10%.

Почему ты так одержим мной? ❓

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

As a Russian I am betting yes for two reasons:

— It's suicidal for Putin to not run for power. He is currently controlling everything. He keeps his power by default and something unusual has to happen in order for him to lose power.

— Either I win by betting YES on this market or I win by not having my country run by a dictator. Losing would feel sweet.

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