Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if China's primary aluminium capacity meeting or exceeding the benchmark energy efficiency level of 13,000 kWh/ton reaches at least 30% by December 31, 2027. Resolution will be determined by official data from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) or the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) published in their annual industry reports or official policy implementation assessments. If official government data is unavailable by end of 2027, the market resolves to a poll.

Background

China's 2025-2027 action plan aims to improve energy efficiency across at least 30 per cent of capacity by 2027. The benchmark level for primary aluminum liquid production is set at 13,000 kWh/mt, with a baseline level at 13,350 kWh/mt. As of early 2022, approximately 10% of primary aluminum smelting capacity was higher than benchmark efficiency levels, while 20% was lower than the baseline level. China's national ceiling for primary aluminium production remains capped at 45 million tonnes, with 2024 output reaching 43.396 million tonnes.

Considerations

By the end of 2025, the share of aluminium capacity meeting or exceeding benchmark energy efficiency levels is expected to reach 30 per cent. This suggests the 2027 target may already be on track to be met by 2025, though actual achievement depends on implementation of capacity upgrades and retirement of inefficient facilities. After 2018, aluminium capacity has been relatively fixed due to strict regulation, with manufacturing capacity increasing only from around 40 mt in 2018 to 44 mt in 2024.