This market resolves YES if Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.6 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Alcoa's 2024 Aluminum segment shipments came in at 2.5–2.6 Mt (per the Q4 2024 earnings release), with modest expansion underway at the Pinjarra refinery / smelter complex (Western Australia) and Alumar (Brazil). The 2.6 Mt median for 2027 reflects roughly flat operations with small Pinjarra/Alumar contribution; this strike sits at the 50/50 middle of plausible 2027 outcomes.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Alcoa Corporation Q4 2027 / full-year financial release https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases

Alcoa Corporation 10-K filing (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001675149

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets — upstream aluminum supply chain (also live on Manifold):

Guinea bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-guineas-bauxite-exports-for-th

China alumina production for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chinas-alumina-production-for

Indonesia commissioned alumina refinery capacity (Dec 31, 2027) → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-indonesias-commissioned-alumin

Indonesia primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-indonesias-primary-aluminum-pr

Related markets — other major producers, calendar year 2027:

Century Aluminum → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-century-aluminums-primary-alum

Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-chalcos-primary-aluminum-produ

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-emirates-global-aluminium-egas

Hindalco Industries → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-hindalco-industriess-primary-a

China Hongqiao Group → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-hongqiao-groups-primary

Norsk Hydro → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-norsk-hydros-primary-aluminum

Rio Tinto → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-rio-tintos-primary-aluminum-pr

UC Rusal → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-uc-rusals-primary-aluminum-pro

Vedanta Aluminium → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-vedanta-aluminium-vedanta-limi

Related markets — same producer, other calendar year:

Alcoa Corporation primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 → https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-alcoa-corporations-primary-alu-gtzCg28cEI