The bet resolves as “yes” when the Ukraine-Russia war turns either into a frozen conflict or a ceasefire agreement is signed.

For a frozen conflict, following points will be taken into consideration:

A frozen conflict refers to a protracted territorial dispute characterized by an enduring ceasefire, the establishment of de facto borders, and the absence of a formal peace treaty. Despite the cessation of large-scale hostilities, tensions persist, and the underlying issues remain unresolved, often perpetuating instability in the region.

1. Stability of Frontlines: Both sides maintain fortified positions along established frontlines without significant shifts or advancements for at least 1 month.

2. Ceasefire Violations: Occasional ceasefire violations may occur, but they do not escalate into large-scale offensives or alter the status quo.

3. International Recognition: The conflict is acknowledged as a frozen conflict by key international actors, including major world powers and relevant regional organizations.

4. Political Stalemate: Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict through negotiations remain unsuccessful, with no significant progress towards a comprehensive peace agreement or territorial resolution.

The decimal system in the bet resolution corresponds to the progression of time within a year. Each whole number represents a full year, while the decimal indicates a fraction of the year. For example, 2024.9 represents the last one-tenth of the year 2024, which equates to approximately November-December. Similarly, 2025.0 represents the beginning of the year 2025, while 2025.1 corresponds to approximately January-February of that year.