When will conscripted Ukrainians be able to demobilize?
7
260Ṁ118
2029
68%
Until EOY 2027
66%
Until EOY 2028
64%
Until EOY 2026
39%
Until EOY 2025

The question will resolve as the earliest date in the future when at least some of the conscripted citizens that serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine or the National Guard of Ukraine will be able to demobilize without any particular reason other than their wish and the amount of time they have served (with possible additional conditions like where they served or whether they directly took part in the fighting).

This may happen either as a result of changes to the law that allows demobilization or without such changes (e.g. because of the end of martial law). The resolve date may be later than the date when the law changes (if any) are passed and refers to the earliest date when a person could actually be discharged.

Fine Print

The status of the conscripted servicemembers during mobilization (військова служба за призовом під час мобілізації) in Ukraine is different to that of contract service (військова служба за контрактом) or the "term" service of people under 25 years old (строкова військова служба). This question does not consider these other statuses.

Background info

Currently, there are only a few legal reasons for conscripted Ukrainian servicemembers to leave the armed forces: due to health reasons, family reasons, sentencing by a court, or age. Otherwise, the term of mandatory service is indefinite and limited only by the duration of martial law in Ukraine.

Since the war doesn't appear to end soon, there are now talks about the need for rotation of servicemembers. E.g. one particular bill proposed optional demobilization after 18 months of service.

On the other hand, there is a lack of highly motivated people to be conscripted compared to last year, and there is a fear that replacing experienced combatants with inexperienced ones may weaken Ukraine's positions.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19145/demobilization-date-in-ukraine/

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