This market resolves to YES if Russia and Ukraine formally agree to and implement a ceasefire agreement by October 15, 2025. The ceasefire must be officially announced by both governments and must last for at least 72 consecutive hours to be considered valid.

A ceasefire would involve a temporary or permanent cessation of hostilities, but does not necessarily require a comprehensive peace agreement or resolution of territorial disputes.

Sources for resolution:

• Official statements from Russian and Ukrainian governments

• Confirmation from international monitoring organizations like the OSCE

• Major news outlets reporting on the implementation of a ceasefire

Context: Following the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on August 15, 2025, diplomatic efforts have intensified to reach a ceasefire agreement. President Trump has indicated he wants to facilitate direct talks between Putin and Zelenskyy, while European leaders have emphasized that any agreement must respect Ukraine's sovereignty.