The bet will be considered POSITIVE if a frozen conflict is established in Ukraine by December 31st, 2025, similar to war in Donbass from 2015 to 2021. This is defined as:
A formal or not formal ceasefire agreement is in place
No major kinetic military operations, major shelling, or battles occur for a consecutive 3 month period
Some Russian forces remain occupying parts of Ukraine
Political resolution talks stall with no comprehensive peace deal
The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if active fighting and kinetic warfare in Ukraine continues to occur consistently throughout 2024-2025, with no ceasefire longer than 2 months.
If by December 31st, 2025, a definitive frozen conflict has not set in, but hostilities have also not ceased, the bet will be considered N/A.
Frozen conflict by EOY 2024 link
Frozen conflict by EOY 2025 (you are here)
1,000