Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by EOY 2025?
25
128
490
2025
28%
chance
  • The bet will be considered POSITIVE if a frozen conflict is established in Ukraine by December 31st, 2025, similar to war in Donbass from 2015 to 2021. This is defined as:

    1. A formal or not formal ceasefire agreement is in place

    2. No major kinetic military operations, major shelling, or battles occur for a consecutive 3 month period

    3. Some Russian forces remain occupying parts of Ukraine

    4. Political resolution talks stall with no comprehensive peace deal

  • The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if active fighting and kinetic warfare in Ukraine continues to occur consistently throughout 2024-2025, with no ceasefire longer than 2 months.

  • If by December 31st, 2025, a definitive frozen conflict has not set in, but hostilities have also not ceased, the bet will be considered N/A.

Frozen conflict by EOY 2024 link

Frozen conflict by EOY 2025 (you are here)

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I don't understand the difference between these two possibilities:

"The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if active fighting and kinetic warfare in Ukraine continues to occur consistently throughout 2024-2025, with no ceasefire longer than 2 months.

If by December 31st, 2025, a definitive frozen conflict has not set in, but hostilities have also not ceased, the bet will be considered N/A."

Also, what if there is a peace treaty?

@AlexandreK The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if kinetic military operations between Russian and Ukrainian forces occur with no pauses longer than 2 months at any point until EOY 2025. Kinetic military operations include, but are not limited to: artillery shelling, bombing campaigns, skirmishes between troops, heavy weaponry attacks, aerial bombardments, naval hostilities.

  • If by December 31st, 2025 fighting is still ongoing with no definitive frozen conflict, and no pauses longer than 2 months at any point, the bet outcome would be NEGATIVE. However, if fighting has stalled but talks are progressing on a resolution, the bet could be considered N/A past the end date.

  • If at any point before December 31, 2025, a comprehensive bilateral peace treaty is officially signed between Ukraine and Russia, the bet outcome would instantly switch to NEGATIVE regardless of any frozen conflict status. A bilateral negotiated peace deal would indicate the conflict is resolved and no longer frozen. Hallmarks of a comprehensive bilateral peace treaty would entail terms such as withdrawal of Russian forces, territorial concessions, security guarantees, formal declaration of peace.

bought Ṁ50 NO from 41% to 35%

Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:

  • Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:

EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state-0e415b192aa1?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?

pro-Russian ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

pro-Ukraine ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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  • Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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