I will consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine if there is no military assistance for six consecutive months, after which a ceasefire may or may not occur.
This market will resolve when the time runs out, or alternatively, after I can verify that a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire has been established, lasting for at least a month and covering the entire territories of both Ukraine and Russia. Minor confrontations that do not lead to an escalation do not count as violations of the ceasefire.
The market will also resolve if a formal ceasefire is not established, but the total number of casualties on both sides falls below 10 in one month.
(Ceasefire resolution is similar to, but not exactly equivalent to, https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-u.)
I will not bet in this market.
How do you measure the six months? If US agreed to send 12 months worth of equipment and there is not additional support agreed to within that period, does this resolve No after the first 6 months? Or do we have to wait for 18 months?
Further question: whatβs the minimum threshold to reach βassistanceβ? Access to satellite data is enough?
@capybara If the US does not send anything for 6 months, for the purposes of this market I'll consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine regardless of the level of support before these 6 months. The support has to be military equipment, e.g. https://www.state.gov/united-states-announces-significant-new-military-assistance-for-ukraine-6. Access to satellite date does not qualify as sending military assistance to Ukraine.