I will consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine if there is no military assistance for six consecutive months, after which a ceasefire may or may not occur.

This market will resolve when the time runs out, or alternatively, after I can verify that a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire has been established, lasting for at least a month and covering the entire territories of both Ukraine and Russia. Minor confrontations that do not lead to an escalation do not count as violations of the ceasefire.

The market will also resolve if a formal ceasefire is not established, but the total number of casualties on both sides falls below 10 in one month.

(Ceasefire resolution is similar to, but not exactly equivalent to, https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-u.)

I will not bet in this market.