Update 2025-11-23: Do NOT buy the ‘U.S. stops supporting’ options; they are logically impossible and will never be resolved.
I will consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine if there is no military assistance for six consecutive months, after which a ceasefire may or may not occur.
This market will resolve when the time runs out, or alternatively, after I can verify that a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire has been established, lasting for at least a month and covering the entire territories of both Ukraine and Russia. Minor confrontations that do not lead to an escalation do not count as violations of the ceasefire.
The market will also resolve if a formal ceasefire is not established, but the total number of casualties on both sides falls below 10 in one month.
(Ceasefire resolution is similar to, but not exactly equivalent to, https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-u.)
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they will resolve two options to NO because the condition for them can no longer be met before the end of 2025. The options to be resolved are:
"The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire"
"The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire"
This is because the requirement of no U.S. military assistance for six consecutive months is now considered impossible to fulfill within the market's timeframe.
Update 2025-07-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Due to a platform limitation preventing partial resolution, the creator has committed to never resolving the market to either of the following options:
"The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire"
"The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire"
Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not end the market early because it is not yet clear whether there will be a ceasefire. The market will continue until its scheduled close date or until resolution criteria are met.
Update 2025-11-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The U.S. is still considered to be providing military assistance to Ukraine as long as previously approved assistance from the Biden administration continues to be sent, even if the Trump administration has not approved new assistance packages.
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@Gemc It doesn’t, because cutting off the military did not happen for six consecutive months. See the first sentence in the market description:
I will consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine if there is no military assistance for six consecutive months, after which a ceasefire may or may not occur.
Also, please note that I already committed months ago to never resolving the option you bet on. Further discussion is thus pointless. In general, I really recommend carefully reading the market description and the comments before trading.
@ChaosIsALadder Ok, I think that you have overcomplicated this market with too many AI clarifications contradicting
@Gemc No. For the purposes of this market, the US can't stop supporting Ukraine anymore. See description:
"I will consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine if there is no military assistance for six consecutive months, after which a ceasefire may or may not occur."
With just a bit more than one month left until the end of the year, even if Trump completely stops any military support now, the condition cannot be fulfilled. Trump kept supporting Ukraine until now.
@ChaosIsALadder Very misleading as this is a time where Trump could have possibly pulled out his involvement anymore and stopped support completely. He has no interest in the war, so if he states that he walks awaay then there's no coming back. You should have deleted the option, instead of letting people take loss. Creator dishoest
@Gemc These have been the rules from the very beginning. I attempted to remove the option and even contacted Manifold. It's not possible yet, see the screenshot from the comments below. Also, please note that I've committed to and upheld the commitment to not bet in this market.
@ChaosIsALadder So would it be wise to end the market now? Just incase others get confused and invest?
@Gemc I can't end it early because it's not yet clear whether there’s going to be a ceasefire. I added a warning in the first description line to avoid any future misunderstandings.
Hi I am confused as I just bet in the 2nd and 4th options. Does that mean that if the US stop supportingnUkraine by the end of 2025 without any/or with a ceasefire its invalid in your market?
@traders I plan on resolving the options "The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire" and "The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire" as NO in a few days, because the 6 months period requirement cannot be fulfilled anymore.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/trump-sends-weapons-ukraine-numbers
@traders, @ManifoldAI Unfortunately, Manifold won’t let me partially resolve this multiple-choice market, because it only works for question sets that don’t add up to 100%. Unless Manifold implements this feature, I can only commit to never resolving it to one of the "The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine..." options.
Seems like the US is supporting Ukraine as of this months - this makes a 6 month period before EOY very unlikely. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51800
How do you measure the six months? If US agreed to send 12 months worth of equipment and there is not additional support agreed to within that period, does this resolve No after the first 6 months? Or do we have to wait for 18 months?
Further question: what’s the minimum threshold to reach “assistance”? Access to satellite data is enough?
@capybara If the US does not send anything for 6 months, for the purposes of this market I'll consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine regardless of the level of support before these 6 months. The support has to be military equipment, e.g. https://www.state.gov/united-states-announces-significant-new-military-assistance-for-ukraine-6. Access to satellite date does not qualify as sending military assistance to Ukraine.