Will Trump be held in contempt an 11th time in his New York criminal case?
26
60
Ṁ900Ṁ1k
Jun 6
87%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Judge Merchan has now found Trump in contempt 10 times. Will there be an 11th finding of contempt?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/politics/merchan-trump-gag-order-contempt/index.html
This question resolves YES if Trump is held in contempt again at any point in the trial, regardless of how he is (or whether he is) punished. I will resolve the question after the jury returns a verdict or, in the event of a conviction, Trump is sentenced. (I will hold off on resolving the question if there is any indication that the judge might consider holding Trump in contempt after that, though.)
A related market on whether the court will jail Trump for contempt: https://manifold.markets/Kolyin/will-the-court-in-the-trump-hush-mo
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will Trump take the stand in his New York trial?
9% chance
Will Trump violate his gag order for the 11th time?
80% chance
Will Trump be held in custody pending trial?
36% chance
Will Trump do time?
19% chance
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?
75% chance
Will Trump be convicted?
80% chance
Will Trump be incarcerated for contempt of court at any point during his NYC criminal trial?
25% chance
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any charges in the April NY trial?
60% chance
Will any of the NYC charges against Trump be dismissed by the judge?
23% chance
If convicted, will Donald Trump receive a custodial sentence in the NY criminal case?
62% chance