Will Trump do time?
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137
Ṁ39k
Feb 1
16%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
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predicts NO

Since it’s likely not to be clarified by question owner, I guess it’s worth explicitly saying the resolution criteria I have assumed while betting on this market, based on previous comments by several users:

  • If Trump is imprisoned or serves house arrest (before or after a criminal conviction) before 1/31/25 (market close), resolves YES

If other bettors have been betting on different assumptions, it might be good to discuss this now instead of at market close.

predicts NO

@AdamK I don't have a strong opinion about this, but I could imagine counting pre conviction imprisonment.

predicts NO

@BenjaminIkuta If Trump is imprisoned pre-conviction, I think it would be fair to say he’s “doing time.” I agree with you, and I’ll edit my earlier comment

@AdamK this is also how I was interpreting it. I'll avoid having a position here so I can keep an eye on this as a mod.

sold Ṁ104 YES

Ah crap, I assumed this meant the same as the "will Trump ever do time" markets

Super confused

predicts YES

Why does this resolve in 2025? What if trials extend further?

Would time include house arrest?

predicts NO

I assume this resolves at closing time?