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predicts NO

Since it’s likely not to be clarified by question owner, I guess it’s worth explicitly saying the resolution criteria I have assumed while betting on this market, based on previous comments by several users:

  • If Trump is imprisoned or serves house arrest (before or after a criminal conviction) before 1/31/25 (market close), resolves YES

If other bettors have been betting on different assumptions, it might be good to discuss this now instead of at market close.

predicts NO

@AdamK I don't have a strong opinion about this, but I could imagine counting pre conviction imprisonment.

predicts NO

@BenjaminIkuta If Trump is imprisoned pre-conviction, I think it would be fair to say he’s “doing time.” I agree with you, and I’ll edit my earlier comment

@AdamK this is also how I was interpreting it. I'll avoid having a position here so I can keep an eye on this as a mod.

Super confused

predicts YES

Why does this resolve in 2025? What if trials extend further?

Would time include house arrest?

predicts NO

I assume this resolves at closing time?