From https://metaculus.com/questions/15778/trump-guilty-in-manhattan-by-election-day/
On March 30, 2023, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was charged with 34 felony counts associated with falsifying business records. The indictments by a Manhattan grand jury stem from his alleged role in hush money payments to actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election. With the indictment, Trump became the first president - former or current - charged with criminal activity. On April 4th he pleaded not-guilty.
This trial is definitely not going well for the prosecution. They've yet to point out anything that may be against the law. If the text messages don't have anything special in them, and Cohen is their go-to source, they are in serious trouble. Hung jury is really looking likely, as there will be some people on the jury who hate Trump.
It looks like this is really happening!
I've subsidized this market, and created the Trump Stormy Daniels Trial Dashboard