What is worse than committing a financial crime?
Basic
189
103k
4 hours ago
98.4%
Octopi farming us for food
98%
Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter
97%
Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner
97%
Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)
94%
Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"
92%
Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths
92%
Farming octopuses for food
89%
Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways
88%
buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you
88%
Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food
87%
Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information
86%
Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians
85%
Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company
84%
Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food
80%
Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.
80%
Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food
79%
Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent
64%
Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap
52%
Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent
39%
"James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

The spirit of this market is - someone did something that is worse than committing a financial crime. What could that be?

Examples of financial crimes: Fraud, embezzlement, money laundering, bribes, tax evasion, counterfeiting, insider trading, etc.

The severity of financial crimes can vary and you should use your own judgement when voting/placing your bets.

New Resolution Criteria (copied from Bayesian + Joshua):

  • This is simultaneously a market and a poll.

  • 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

  • If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.

  • This market closes once per week on Friday.

  • If an answer has a clear majority of YES holders, that answer will resolve YES.

  • If an answer has a clear majority of NO holders, that answer will resolve NO.

  • If it's very close or votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.

  • Bots count

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question or if Bayesian/Joshua update their criteria.

Old answers below will have standard polls. New answers (added after 6pm ET on June 21st) will adhere to the new guidelines above.

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bought Ṁ10 Answer #ih90z39y0p NO

Pun aside, killing a killer is possibly a net good, if done humanely, and this killer in particular is about to kill a sentient being in an extremely cruel way

Even assuming everyone involved was only working minimum wage, that's easily on the order of magnitude of $10M wasted, and I think we already voted that a financial crime of that scale is worse than the typical financial crime

The GPT algorithms we have aren’t really designed to create mass destruction because they’re trained to reflect human ethics.

Even if we assume GPT5 could bypass ethics and maximize paperclips, it can’t acquire the physical capital to do so by itself.

@JonathanRay what does this even mean?

It’s a reference to the paperclip maximizer described here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_convergence

bought Ṁ20 Answer #pwonh38my4 YES

Do bots holding shares count?

Yeah

bought Ṁ2 Answer #bve9nr097u YES

Even though that's not at all reflective of true public sentiment?

@JonathanRay Adderall or 🔮

Adderall contains 0% meth (meth is like speed on steroids and speed is like adderall on steroids) and is not comparable at all when it comes to this market

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/know-your-amphetamines

dextroamphetamine and methamphetamine have similar receptor binding affinities, but the latter crosses the blood-brain-barrier more easily so it probably has a better ratio of CNS effects to peripheral side effects. The previous sentence has been fact checked TRUE by GPT4. OTOH people who abuse meth use waaaaaay higher doses than a prescribed dose of adderall, and that's how they get into trouble.

see table of receptor binding affinities here: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Affinity-of-Stimulants-at-Monoamine-Transporters-NET-DAT-and-SERT-in-Ligand-Binding_tbl1_353929707

Lower numbers are stronger (really should be the using the inverse numbers). Anything above 20 is irrelevant

Well yeah my main point was that people doing meth (or speed) ain't doing 50mg of dex-lisdexamphetamine a day like an adderall dosage would be. If someone was giving desoxyn to kids I would not oppose that any more particularly than adderall

Like soupy sales ?

Like ABSCAM

@HoldingC Now that's an oddly specific hypothetical

@JonathanRay this is kind of what SBF did

@Mad underrated

so we agree that hiring illegal immigrants is ok (or at least, less bad than a financial crime)
and we agree that hiring a prostitute long term is ok (or at least, less bad than a financial crime)
so why would combining the two cross the threshold?

bought Ṁ10 Answer #3d0c73a54615 YES

I think it's the slave part

bought Ṁ25 Answer #6llaw56si9 NO

It's the prostitute vs slave wording. Slave implies they are there against thier own will

i thought the hiring part implied the slave part is just larping

I used to work in finance regulations, and this would highly depends on intention, the amount of the money committed, the specific type, etc. Personally, I believe it would highly depend on what actual harm it caused for people - did it steal money from the people who otherwise would die, or did it steal money from people who are rich anyways? Without clarifications, seems to me we would just need to make a guess or research for the average case.

My feed as been nothing but new ideas today

@JonathanRay Indian factory workers earn $1.80 an hour. Adjusted by purchasing power parity, that's $6.11, which is not that much less than the US federal minimum wage of $7.25.

nice! I was just basing this on double the minimum wage which is ~$2/day

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