Will Trump be held in custody pending trial?
Nov 1

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If he gets a custodial sentence in NY before his other trials start, would that resolve to yes? In other words, is any time in custody before his last trial counts a yes?

@Kolyin that's a good point (one that occurred to me after I created the market). But I think the answer is YES.

Does house arrest count?

predicts YES

@JoshMC yes.

I think I might be misunderstanding the resolution criteria but this seems like a clear no to me. It would require a judge to deny him bail? Or does it resolve yes if he is granted bail?

predicts YES

@zzlk so far he has been granted release. But for example if a judge considers Trump has violated the terms of his release (for example, if he commits another crime, e g. Witness intimidation; then Trump might be found in contempt and his released be revoked

bought Ṁ100 of NO

How does this resolve if Trump spends one night in jail?

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes yes if he is in jail pending trial, say if he violates some condition of his release (on any of his cases). If he is in jail after convicted, doesn't count.

If they put Trump in jail do the Secret Service have to go with him?

bought Ṁ14 of YES

@JimAusman as far as I know (that's it, very little) the answer is not clear, but I've heard most likely NO.

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