Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
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2029
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chance

To qualify, the crisis should be listed here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis

If Wikipedia becomes unreliable, defunct, or does not list a crisis but there's a broad consensus that there has been one, then I'm open to resolving according to a different source.

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One, there are currently six such crises listed for the United States. Presumably none of those count for this market? Does this market include only events that occur after market creation, or does it also include events that occur before market creation but are added to the list after market creation?

Two, looking over the "talk" page for that article, it sounds like there's been a bit of back-and-forth about whether to include other events in the list. How will this market handle the situation where someone adds a new event to the list a few days before market close, but it then gets removed a few days after market close?

@NLeseul Good questions. The intent is not to capture any event occurring before the creation of the market (July 2023). However if more historical events were to be added / removed, that would tend to reduce the credibility of the source.

If a candidate event is very fresh/still evolving around the close, I may extend the close until there’s clarity. The criteria would be that the constitutional crisis was substantially recognizably underway before the close. In that scenario I’d try to honor the original intent - to capture new constitutional crises occurring after market creation and before 2030.