Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?

Question

Resolution will be based on whether there is media consensus that any actions undertaken by politically motivated guerrilla groups represent an insurgency. I will not bet on this market. I'm open to suggestions that refine the resolution criteria before 2026.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 54% chance (14 traders, as of Oct 14, 2026).