Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
Jan 1

including tests

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HanchiSun avatar
Hanchi Sun
FabianMontero avatar
Fabián Montero

It should be clarified of nuclear tests count. Will this resolve to yes only if an aggressive use of a nuclear weapon take place?

CertaintyOfVictory avatar
Certainty of Victorypredicts YES

@FabianMontero You are right, this is really unclear.

Quadrifold avatar
Panfilo avatar

@NickAllen Non-critical radioisotope test.

PlasmaBallin avatar
Plasma Ballin'bought Ṁ100 of NO

@NickAllen They conducted an experiment at a nuclear test site with explosives containing radioactive material, but they didn't actually explode a nuclear weapon. From what I'm reading, it was a chemical bomb that contained radioisotopes.

qwerty avatar
qwertypredicts NO

@JosephNoonan Departament of Energy press release makes it clear it doesn't count.

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghsold Ṁ10 of YES

@SjoerdSpendel Its described as a chemical explosion in that article

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackbought Ṁ333 of NO

the fox article also claims it's "The U.S. conducted a high-explosive experiment at a nuclear test site in Nevada hours after Russia revoked a ban on atomic-weapons testing, which Moscow said would put it on par with the United States. 

Wednesday's test used chemicals and radioisotopes to "validate new predictive explosion models" that can help detect atomic blasts in other countries, Bloomberg reported, citing the Department of Energy. "

Quadrifold avatar
a2bb avatar
Неточка Незвановаpredicts NO
Lsusr avatar

Does this include nuclear tests? As written, it seems to, but there appears to be an arbitrage opportunity between this resolution (15%) and the strictly North Korean one, which has a higher probability (18%).

jack avatar
Jackpredicts NO

@Lsusr It does include tests, and yes there is (or, was) an arbitrage opportunity.

Lsusr avatar

@jack Thanks. I'm new to this website and wasn't confident I was reading everything properly. The arbitrage opportunity is gone now.

StevenK avatar
Stevenpredicts YES

@jack What about nuclear tests in which a nuclear weapon is not successfully detonated? Those seem like they would count on the NK question but not here.

LightLawliet avatar
Light Lawliet

@Lsusr By betting NO on the North Korea one and YES on this one? Which ratio of bet size makes the most sense in such a situation?

Lsusr avatar

@LightLawliet That's the idea, but I failed to notice the case where North Korea conducts a "test" but their device fails to detonate.

I think a 1:1 bet size is the way to go. The actual optimal case is close enough to 1:1 that you should just do 1:1. The real issue is slippage. You need to keep the bet size small enough that slippage doesn't overwhelm the arbitrage opportunity.

AltPutin avatar

Только вы можете предотвратить это. Я не могу. ☢

NicholasKross avatar
Nicholas Krossbought Ṁ25 of YES

For those wondering "why is this so high?", keep in mind that (in addition to the actual object-level reasons traders might expect this to happen) some of us are using this as a hedge. Albeit, kind of a minor one.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistpredicts NO

@NicholasKross Could you please explain what are you hedging against? Like winning a bit of mana in case of a nuclear war?

jack avatar
Jackpredicts YES

@NicholasKross Doesn't seem like a very good hedge. Both the superforecasters and the markets expect that by far the most likely source of a nuclear detonation is a North Korean test: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-36f06f22f954

A test would be an escalation, but not likely to be particularly bad by itself. If you want to hedge against wider conflict, I created

NicholasKross avatar
Nicholas Krosspredicts YES

@jack That's a better idea, thank you!