It should be clarified of nuclear tests count. Will this resolve to yes only if an aggressive use of a nuclear weapon take place?

@FabianMontero You are right, this is really unclear.

Ed: yeah, sorry.

Resolves yes

https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts-nuclear-test-nevada-hours-russian-move-revoke-global-nuclear-test-ban.amp

@NickAllen Non-critical radioisotope test.

@NickAllen They conducted an experiment at a nuclear test site with explosives containing radioactive material, but they didn't actually explode a nuclear weapon. From what I'm reading, it was a chemical bomb that contained radioisotopes.

@JosephNoonan Departament of Energy press release makes it clear it doesn't count.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts-nuclear-test-nevada-hours-russian-move-revoke-global-nuclear-test-ban

US conducts nuclear test in Nevada hours after Russian move to revoke global test ban

The U.S. conducted a high-explosive experiment at a nuclear test site in Nevada on Wednesday as tensions flare over Russia's nuclear ambitions.

@SjoerdSpendel Its described as a chemical explosion in that article

@DylanSlagh sorry I thought it was the same article becuase it has the same image https://news3lv.com/news/local/us-tests-chemical-explosion-nevada-national-security-site-improve-nuclear-detection-energy-department-nnss-experiment-las-vegas-research-testing

US tests explosion at Nevada Security Site to improve nuclear detection

KSNV NBC Las Vegas covers news, sports, weather and traffic for the Las Vegas, Nevada area including Paradise, Spring Valley, Henderson, North Las Vegas, Indian Springs, Sloan, Searchlight, Laughlin and Nellis AFB.

the fox article also claims it's "The U.S. conducted a high-explosive experiment at a nuclear test site in Nevada hours after Russia revoked a ban on atomic-weapons testing, which Moscow said would put it on par with the United States. 

Wednesday's test used chemicals and radioisotopes to "validate new predictive explosion models" that can help detect atomic blasts in other countries, Bloomberg reported, citing the Department of Energy. "

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/17/russia-moves-to-revoke-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-a82793

Russia Moves to Revoke Nuclear Test Ban Treaty - The Moscow Times

Russian lawmakers voted on Tuesday to revoke Moscow's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, moving closer to abandoning a landmark agreement that outlaws the testing of nuclear weapons.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-by

Polymarket | Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?

Polymarket | This is a market series over by when there will be a nuclear detonation anywhere in the world.

Does this include nuclear tests? As written, it seems to, but there appears to be an arbitrage opportunity between this resolution (15%) and the strictly North Korean one, which has a higher probability (18%).

@Lsusr It does include tests, and yes there is (or, was) an arbitrage opportunity.

@jack Thanks. I'm new to this website and wasn't confident I was reading everything properly. The arbitrage opportunity is gone now.

@jack What about nuclear tests in which a nuclear weapon is not successfully detonated? Those seem like they would count on the NK question but not here.

@Lsusr By betting NO on the North Korea one and YES on this one? Which ratio of bet size makes the most sense in such a situation?

@LightLawliet That's the idea, but I failed to notice the case where North Korea conducts a "test" but their device fails to detonate.

I think a 1:1 bet size is the way to go. The actual optimal case is close enough to 1:1 that you should just do 1:1. The real issue is slippage. You need to keep the bet size small enough that slippage doesn't overwhelm the arbitrage opportunity.

Только вы можете предотвратить это. Я не могу. ☢

For those wondering "why is this so high?", keep in mind that (in addition to the actual object-level reasons traders might expect this to happen) some of us are using this as a hedge. Albeit, kind of a minor one.

@NicholasKross Could you please explain what are you hedging against? Like winning a bit of mana in case of a nuclear war?

@NicholasKross Doesn't seem like a very good hedge. Both the superforecasters and the markets expect that by far the most likely source of a nuclear detonation is a North Korean test: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-36f06f22f954

A test would be an escalation, but not likely to be particularly bad by itself. If you want to hedge against wider conflict, I created

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test by end of 2023?

23% chance. Resolves YES if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon before the end of 2023. NO otherwise. I will refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea and reliable media reporting for resolution. I will use local time in Korea. Background In 2022, North Ko…

@jack That's a better idea, thank you!