Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
11
24
แน178แน150
2028
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Includes both offensive detonations and "tests" used to intimidate people. Any country could be the progenitor as long as it's clearly mostly about the Israel-Hamas conflict or whatever larger conflict grows out of that. (e.g. Russia launching a missile at Ukraine does not count, but Russia launching a missile at Israel does count.)
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