Will a dirty bomb be used by 2030?

Question

As determined by reports from multiple reputable news outlets.

A dirty bomb or radiological dispersal device is a radiological weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. The purpose of the weapon is to contaminate the area around the dispersal agent/conventional explosion with radioactive material, serving primarily as an area denial device against civilians. It is not to be confused with a nuclear explosion, such as a fission bomb, which produces blast effects far in excess of what is achievable by the use of conventional explosives.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (19 traders, as of Nov 28, 2025).