[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Question

A Credit Default Swap is a financial derivative that allows investors to hedge or speculate on the credit risk of a particular entity. Essentially, a CDS is an insurance policy against the default of a borrower. In the context of prediction markets like Manifold, we can draw a parallel by considering the likelihood of certain events (or 'defaults') occurring.

In this case, this market would assess the likelihood of various other markets resolving to a 'Yes' outcome. This approach mirrors the CDS concept, as participants are essentially speculating on the 'default' (or outcome) of these other markets.

Here are the ten open yes/no markets with the most traders.

[image]Resolution Criterion: The market will consider the resolution of ten specific markets. If any of the selected markets resolve to 'NA', it will count as 0.5 towards the total number of 'Yes' resolutions.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, [A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES. is most likely. See the market for live updates (34 traders, as of Apr 23, 2026).