In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

Question

First nuclear weapon detonate: which country is responsible for it

Nuclear tests don't count, only actual weapon used for war or strategic purpose connecting to war.

Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed that a nuclear detonation under a 'last warning' doctrine would count. This includes scenarios such as:

A single nuclear strike

Intended as a communication strategy or to show resolve

In response to an enemy threatening vital interests, even if the threat is through conventional means.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 🇮🇱 Israel, followed by 🇷🇺 Russia and 🇺🇸 United States of America are most likely. See the market for live updates (86 traders, as of Mar 23, 2026).