[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Basic
26
5.1k
2028
98.6%
[A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES.
98%
[AA] At least 2 markets resolve to YES.
88%
[BBB] At least 4 markets resolve to YES.
56%
[BB] At least 5 markets resolve to YES.
17%
[B] At least 6 markets resolve to YES.
2%
[CCC] At least 7 markets resolve to YES.
1.9%
[CC] At least 8 markets resolve to YES.
Resolved
YES
[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES.

A Credit Default Swap is a financial derivative that allows investors to hedge or speculate on the credit risk of a particular entity. Essentially, a CDS is an insurance policy against the default of a borrower. In the context of prediction markets like Manifold, we can draw a parallel by considering the likelihood of certain events (or 'defaults') occurring.

In this case, this market would assess the likelihood of various other markets resolving to a 'Yes' outcome. This approach mirrors the CDS concept, as participants are essentially speculating on the 'default' (or outcome) of these other markets.

Here are the ten open yes/no markets with the most traders.

Resolution Criterion: The market will consider the resolution of ten specific markets. If any of the selected markets resolve to 'NA', it will count as 0.5 towards the total number of 'Yes' resolutions.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Guys can u verify if my resolutions are correct?

I like this style a bunch, glad to see more of it! I have a few as well, such as:
/EvanDaniel/long-shotish-bets-how-many-of-these

I think the structure works better if you do "resolves as expected" instead of "resolves Yes" when some of the markets are trading at > 90% and others at < 10%. That is, invert the outcome on some so that they're all either > 50% or all < 50% rather than straddling. That makes the shape of the distribution over the count more informative, and I think would help a (hypothetical) bot be better able to use this market for hedging.

@EvanDaniel You are smart

As markets in the top 10 resolve to NO, will you resolve those to NO? Or all at once

@snoozingnewt I will resolve as soon as I have enough to make the decision.

for example, if any of the top 10 resolve to NO, I will resolve [D] to NO. If two of the top 10 goes to No, I will resolve [CC] to NO

Similarly, if any of the top 10 resolve to YES, I will resolve [AAA] to YES, etc.

@HanchiSun, if the gpt-4 market resolves to 50%, does that also count as 0.5 for this market?

@DanielTilkin You are right. I did not think about it. Yes it will resolve to 0.5

I love it, I was wondering why there weren't more financial-derivative-inspired markets on Manifold. In particular insurance.

@RemiRampin I created an ETF China index fund, see if you like the format