Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?
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Market will resolve when there are verified reports of a nuclear detonation for any reason. But it must be a weapon that was detonated and not some sort of accident.
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Ok. Then I’m happy to unresolve my bets and then shut down the account. Is that possible? If so, do you have any suggestions on how best to do?
@IsaacKing Doesn’t sound like a nuclear explosion. “Wednesday's test used chemicals and radioisotopes to "validate new predictive explosion models" that can help detect atomic blasts in other countries, Bloomberg reported, citing the Department of Energy.”
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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