In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first? | Manifold

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

69

1.4kṀ3798

2033

34%

🇷🇺 Russia

23%

🇺🇸 United States of America

4%

🇰🇵 North Korea

1.4%

🇨🇳 China

12%

🇮🇳 India

2%

🇮🇷 Iran

6%

🇮🇱 Israel

13%

🇵🇰 Pakistan

5%

Other

First nuclear weapon detonate: which country is responsible for it

Nuclear tests don't count, only actual weapon used for war or strategic purpose connecting to war.

Arab-Israeli Conflict

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The US uses a nuke every 40 years in the average, the leftover period is 8 years, so rough estimate of the base rate for them using a nuke at all is 20% (though here the question is different). They also have a bigger arsenal than most others and are less likely to suffer serious consequences if they just use one or a few nukes in isolation for tactical reasons. Small actors like North Korea or the UK on the other hand have much more to lose by triggering a nuclear confrontation. Edit: base rate is likely off because of strong time autocorrelation in nuke usage

What about terrorism? Does that count as "other"?

https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts-nuclear-test-nevada-hours-russian-move-revoke-global-nuclear-test-ban.amp

If we get to 2033 without a weapon being used, does this resolve N/A? Does the due date get extended?

@EvanDaniel yes, solves N/A in that case

@Quadrifold It's kind of hateful to design a market to likely resolve N/A when you could easily just add a "nobody" option.

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In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, where it will be dropped first?

What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?

What country will the third nuclear weapon used in combat hit?

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)

What will the primary target of the next nuclear bomb used in conflict be?

Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025?

If the US is nuked by 2050, which city will be nuked first?

If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in New Zealand within 1 year?

Related questions

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, where it will be dropped first?

What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?

What country will the third nuclear weapon used in combat hit?

Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)

What will the primary target of the next nuclear bomb used in conflict be?

Which of these twelve countries will have at least one known nuclear weapon in their possession at the end of 2025?

If the US is nuked by 2050, which city will be nuked first?

If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in New Zealand within 1 year?

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