Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
Basic
25
3.2k
2030
24%
chance

The detonation of nuclear weapons in combat has not occurred since World War II, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the last instances. However, the threat of nuclear conflict remains due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like North Korea, Russia, and the United States. International treaties and diplomatic efforts aim to prevent nuclear proliferation and use.

Details:

  • Historical Context: No combat use since 1945; numerous close calls and tensions during the Cold War and beyond.

  • Factors to Consider: Geopolitical developments, arms control treaties, and regional conflicts.

  • Data Sources: Reports from international bodies like the IAEA, UN, and strategic think tanks.

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