Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test by end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Resolves YES if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon before the end of 2023. NO otherwise.

I will refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea and reliable media reporting for resolution. I will use local time in Korea.


In 2022, North Korea conducted a large number of ballistic missile tests and announced their intent to expand their nuclear arsenal. North Korea has done 6 nuclear tests (see Wikipedia's list here), the first in 2006 and the most recent in 2017. South Korean and US intelligence indicated that North Korea had completed preparations for a nuclear test. Satellite imagery showed the reopening of their underground nuclear test site (previously closed in 2018).


See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.



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bought Ṁ300 of NO
predicted YES

Both sides are now escalating in such a way that this seems inevitable in the next 6 months. US docking nuclear submarines in SK is probably the event that demands a test of tactical weapon.

predicted YES

I think this is 50/50. See my comment here.

bought Ṁ45 of YES

I think this is 50/50. See my comment here.

predicted YES

Don't you think the bot Arrrr glitched? Buys and sells in circles

predicted YES

@KongoLandwalker It's arbitraging between this and other similar markets. Whenever someone makes a trade on another market, it may trade on both that one and this one.

predicted YES

@jack so it just speculates on the difference?

predicted NO

@KongoLandwalker If one is higher than another, it equalizes the two.

bought Ṁ60 of NO

For a shorter timeline:

bought Ṁ35 of NO

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