Resolves YES if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon before the end of 2023. NO otherwise.
I will refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea and reliable media reporting for resolution. I will use local time in Korea.
Background
In 2022, North Korea conducted a large number of ballistic missile tests and announced their intent to expand their nuclear arsenal. North Korea has done 6 nuclear tests (see Wikipedia's list here), the first in 2006 and the most recent in 2017. South Korean and US intelligence indicated that North Korea had completed preparations for a nuclear test. Satellite imagery showed the reopening of their underground nuclear test site (previously closed in 2018).
Related
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-e717f6cb823f
/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-af0ba4d66245
This is a follow-up question to
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https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/07/17/asia-pacific/jake-sullivan-north-korea-nuclear-test/ Usually they say something like "it would surprise us" so this is a change of tone for sure.
@KongoLandwalker It's arbitraging between this and other similar markets. Whenever someone makes a trade on another market, it may trade on both that one and this one.