How many of these markets will resolve Yes?
/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-b81a727f8cd4
/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6cba7b4a2e34
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren
/EvanDaniel/will-a-nuclear-missile-be-successfu
/EvanDaniel/will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-bbd6762bfb35
/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-an-accidental-nuclear
/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta
/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the
This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to the linked markets.
1,000
3.00See also:
/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8-1d6566217a38
/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-noise-how-many-of-0201d8781984
This trio is a bit of an experiment to see how close together they get arbitraged and how the "noise" markets influence the results. Between the three of them it should be possible to analyze interest rate effects and such.
@Eliza They're basically reasonable. There's some correlational structure to them, since it includes "any nuke" along with several more specific options, but the other options don't imply complete coverage, so all the numbers are reasonably plausible.
Definitely think about correlations before trying to price this with any precision, but that was probably obvious to begin with...